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To: kenavi
I'll clarify further the law of economics involved.

When a bunch of people decide to be deadbeats and welsh on their debts all at once, they hand losses to their lenders. This erodes their lender's capital and their ability to make any new loans. It makes financial capital scarcer, objectively. It also increases the perceived risks to making any sort of loan, especially those similar to the ones experiencing high losses, but also just to all of them, since financial capital is fungible and flows to higher bidders and better credits first, when it is scarce.

This automatically raises the rates that everyone has to pay to borrow capital. Regardless of what authorities try to do to make capital cheaper or to keep interest rates low. Less capital existing to serve a market in which higher risks exist, loan rates must rise. Since the authorities are trying to keep rates low, this occurs as a vast increase in the spreads between the highest quality credits and lower credit tiers, rather than as a parallel shift higher for all interest rates. But it happens. The Fed can send rates to zero, but the only people who get access to borrowings at those near zero rates, are the government and government-guaranteed banks and other underwritten financial institutions. All the actual borrowers have to pay more, a lot more. Vastly wider spreads than before the deadbeat epidemic.

You can't make capital cheaper by refusing to pay for it.

You make it more expensive instead.

The only way to make capital truly cheaper again for the end borrower, is to fill the financial coffers again, to restore loan capital, to replace the losses financiers already experienced, and to attract new replacement capital by offering higher rates and actually delivering on them, through better repayment experience, as well. This takes time and it is intensely painful for anyone reliant on financing during the wide-spread period, but it must occur. The only way to have cheap capital again is to have fat and happy capitalists.

Until every penny of it is repaid, everyone sweats harder for every scrape of capital they use. This economizes on its uses and also tends to encourage higher savings that gradually reconstitutes finance capital. As people tend to be risk-averse after past losses, they pile into safe forms of investment - treasuries, guaranteed bank CDs - and their mutual fear makes them do so even at rates near zero. This means they are providing more and more loan capital to intermediaries at lower costs, at the very moment anyone willing to run banker-style risks can charge wide spreads to lend it out again to riskier places.

Everyone trying to stiff financiers is inherently self defeating. Just like trying to stiff bread providers in a famine, it can only drive prices higher still.

153 posted on 02/18/2009 3:53:34 PM PST by JasonC
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To: JasonC
Just like trying to stiff bread providers in a famine

More like people whose job it is to provide bread, but who don't have any flour because they lost it in a craps game.

157 posted on 02/18/2009 5:39:21 PM PST by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (I want to "Buy American" but the only things for sale made in the USA are politicians)
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To: JasonC
Very good.

Is the $300 billion of capital from private sources you refer to the amount of new capital raised by bank companies during a recent period.? If so it almost included me. I decided however to keep my money in cash, the value of which however is also eroding daily.

What would get me as an investor to re-invest in the stock market?

It wouldn't be for the government to prop up the Citibanks (really, Sanford Weil, Commercial Capital, Primerica, and Travelers) or Bank of Americas (really Nationsbank and more other acquired banks you can shake a stick at) of the world.

It would be to give an opportunity for the smaller banks who successfully stuck to their knitting, and new entrants whether vulture capitalists or foreign banks or specialized-industry finance companies to buy into our credit markets, and allow over-all credit to start to trend downward. And it would be to give taxpayers small equity stakes in the banks or bank assets emerging out of government receivership.

I work for people who risk their money in good faith. I have no truck with CEO empire-builders.
162 posted on 02/19/2009 1:26:36 PM PST by kenavi (Want a real stimulus? Drill!)
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