Well, being a FX and S&P index tactical trader (run my CTA firm), I can tell you it’s a bit uncertain as to what turn all this will take. My models got completely blown up in Oct, BUT, with a bit of adjustments we made a killing in Nov. And, now, things have definitely come back down to ‘normal’, ie, daily swings are not hair raising and VIX (the fear index) has come down to a much less ulcer inducing 40s from the (’run for the hills’) 80+.
I’m keeping an eye on the eastern Europe, BUT, all this was known long time ago. All of them went begging to the IMF in October, and they’ve been taking steps to mitigate things. Even though things look pretty rough, most of the money that was going to has already pulled out of Russia and Eastern Europe.
Of course, with the damn Spendulus, inflation will be rearing its ugly head sooner rather than later. But I don’t expect that to start seriously showing up until later this year.
>Of course, with the damn Spendulus, inflation will be rearing its ugly head sooner rather than later. But I don’t expect that to start seriously showing up until later this year.<
Inflation notwithstanding, prices of food have been going up. For example, a simple box of namebrand saltine crackers is now $3.00.