For all that it matters, you may be correct in that statement, then again may not be. The basis for that statement is exit polls, and the difference between Kadima and Likud is probably within the statistical margin of error of the polls. So lets wait until all the ballots are counted. But whether Likud comes in first or a close second, you are correct to say that Netanyahu may become the next PM; actually, he most likely will become the next PM.
Everybody seems to have steped to the right:
Left-wing Labor voters went Centrist (Kadima)
Many Kadima voters moved to Rightist Likud,
And a bunch of Likud voters went to the hard right Beitenu.
Livni is in good position, but it’s only because the Left collapsed. So,over all, still good. She will have to negotiate with the right in order to build a majority.