con’t:
China will move in with its partners(probably Russia) to restore order. S. Korea and U.S. may be invited in to make it an international efforts.
China will try to defacto puppet regime in Pyongyang, and pressure other countries to accept the deal. This would make S. Koreans really unhappy. However, erstwhile pinkos, who railed against U.S. Imperialism on Korean Peninsula and so big on nationalism and Korea’s victimhood under American ‘boot,’ would embrace it as a ‘reasonable and practical solution.’
They would never have been reasonable to Americans but things would be different with China. Selling out nationalism and victimhood for pro-Chicom stance. Anti-Americanism at all costs, which could erode their support among general population.
China, after installing a puppet regime, would go about buying off N. Korean population with more food and better economy. They will try to gain access to key strategic locations(ports along E. Sea (Sea of Japan).)
Security hawk will prevail in Japan now that China advances into Korean Peninsula. They will seriously rearm and could go nuclear, which would worry China. Concern for S. Korea and Japan going nuclear would be a great mitigating factor for China’s design for N. Korea.
If N. Korea would fall under China, even through a puppet regime, S. Korea and Japan would less rely on U.S. Japan could try to take S. Korea under its wing, which would be resisted by S. Koreans. This will give more motivation for S. Korea to go nuclear than Japan.
Russia would try to join the fray, dangling its natural gas and oil supply from Siberia and Sakhalin as a carrot. They have wanted a trans-Siberian shipping route from Japan, S. Korea to Europe. They want to increase their influence on Korean Peninsula this way.
All this hinges on the assumption that N. Korea can be taken over with no serious troubles. However, succession struggles degenerate into open confrontation, military confrontations between factions, or even further different faction chose different outside backer.
That is, one faction gets China’s support, another get S. Korea and U.S.. Then things get messy. Even if somebody takes over government, but government cannot function and chaos continues on the ground(no effective government control,) drastically different situation could emerge. It will get messy for all parties involved.
21 posted on Thursday, June 04, 2009 12:28:41 AM by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC — L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
Police find suspected ricin in Everett home
The FBI said this afternoon that they have “a strong suspicion” that an Everett man had the deadly poison ricin in his home office, and a specially trained hazardous-materials team — including experts flown in today from Washington, D.C. — have locked down the home.
The situation began with a domestic-violence call to Everett police Monday and has grown into a substantial federal investigation.
An FBI spokeswoman said agents have no fear that the substance poses any risk to the public or to neighbors, and no one has been exposed or evacuated.
On Monday about 5 p.m., Everett police were called to the home at 1208 50th St. S.W. and found a bleeding 43-year-old woman in her front yard. They went inside and found her husband, 48, unresponsive with some kind of medical emergency, said Everett police Sgt. Robert Goetz....
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009302011_webricin04m.html