The events you cited all happened before secession. My point was these trends would not continue after independence because the Confederate constitution dealt with the problem.
I think you can make a good argument that secession was inevitable, but that doesn't mean war was. Lincoln chose to go to war.
You treat them as if they had nothing to do with secession, when in fact secession was the culmination of those events -- indeed, it was precisely what those political settlements had been designed to prevent!
My point was these trends would not continue after independence because the Confederate constitution dealt with the problem.
Undoubtedly wrong. The Confederate constitution dealt with the problem of expansion of slavery as follows:
(3) The Confederate States may acquire new territory; and Congress shall have power to legislate and provide governments for the inhabitants of all territory belonging to the Confederate States, lying without the limits of the several Sates; and may permit them, at such times, and in such manner as it may by law provide, to form States to be admitted into the Confederacy. In all such territory the institution of negro slavery, as it now exists in the Confederate States, shall be recognized and protected by Congress and by the Territorial government; and the inhabitants of the several Confederate States and Territories shall have the right to take to such Territory any slaves lawfully held by them in any of the States or Territories of the Confederate States.
(Emphasis mine) You will note that these are precisely the issues that created the Sectional Crisis and led to secession in the first place. The Confederates obviously meant to deal with those problems by explicitly enshrining their own position in constitional law. If any one piece of Confederate writing can be said to reflect the Confederate position on slavery, this is it -- it's in their founding document! Indeed, the major difference between the Confederate and United States constitutions is the Confederate version's explicit wording to protect the institution of slavery.
More than that, the Confederate leaders clearly anticipated and even encouraged the expansion of slavery into new regions -- the problem had not been dealt with or defused at all. Southern attempts to move slavery into the territories would continue as a fundamental principle; and those "new territories" were, in part, those to which the North also made claim. (Some Southerners also had attempted to create slave states by raising armies to conquer vulnerable countries in the Carribean and Central America.... They were clearly not above the use of force in their cause.)
I think you can make a good argument that secession was inevitable, but that doesn't mean war was. Lincoln chose to go to war.
There would have been competition for territories, and war would certainly have followed, as had already been shown in Kansas. And in case you missed it, the South fired the first shots.