Indeed.
What I’m eager to see is a numerical breakdown once an abiogenesis pathway is found. More precisely, I want to see a function of the form:
P(X) = f(V,t,C0,W)
where
X := an event variable marking the rise of a self-replicating organic system
V := a volume of primordial fluid
t := a time duration
C0 := a set describing the initial (abiotic) composition of the primordial fluid
W := a function describing the influx of energy into the volume (for example, describing energy input by sunlight over a day/night cycle, or describing the intermittent massive energy in a lightning discharge, etc.)
Such a function, if derived from mathematical models and supported by experimental demonstration, would allow us to assert that abiogenesis is not only non-miraculous but is in fact inevitable. In other words, given a “laboratory” where V is the total volume of the early Earth’s oceans and t is the hundreds of millions of years between the formation of the oceans and the fossil record’s indications of the rise of organic life, such a function would show just how ridiculous it is to imagine that an organic self-replicator *wouldn’t* form.
And naturally, once formed, a self-replicator will tend to stick around, because, well, by definition that’s what a self-replicator does. Without competition for limited resources, the self-replicator would quickly propagate throughout the entire ocean until it ran out of primordial fluid to consume - at which point each self-replicating entity would have to consume other instances of the self-replicator, thus favoring variations that are more adept than others at doing so... And so the story goes. :)
I suspect it will be a while. But I am personally astonished how little time elapsed between the decoding of DNA and commercial applications.
I’ve been watching this research out of the courner of my eye. I’m thinking the pace is picking up.
The universe, as we understand it, is roughly 4 times older than earth. I would wager that if we ever do detect life beyond our solar system it will be based on carbon and have DNA in its genes. The basic building blocks of life on earth are found through out the universe. It seems logical that given time, a suitable environment and abundant water, life similar to earth based organisms would arise with most of the same characteristics.
Having said that, I firmly believe there is a God, as we understand the concept. Darwin described evolution and we have witnessed it in motion in our lifetimes with the rise of drug resistant microbes. Adaption and survival of certain pathogens in the face of poisons is clearly an evolutionary process.
However, Darwin’s theory does nothing to explain the rise of man. Survival of the fittest works well in a natural setting, but it does no explain the fierce intelligence of the human specie. In fact, we humans are a good argument against Darwin while the remainder of life forms clearly support his thesis.
There are no evolutionary forces driving the development of such a high degree of human intelligence to develop space flight or a thousand other sources of knowledge and wonder.
We are an enigma. I have faith those mysteries will be revealed one day, in this life or the next.
Just MHO.
Nothing in this is inherently calculable, but some reasonably accurate estimates can be made.P(X) = f(V,t,C0,W) where X := an event variable marking the rise of a self-replicating organic system V := a volume of primordial fluid t := a time duration C0 := a set describing the initial (abiotic) composition of the primordial fluid W := a function describing the influx of energy into the volume (for example, describing energy input by sunlight over a day/night cycle, or describing the intermittent massive energy in a lightning discharge, etc.)
The volume, time duration, and mix of substances can be established within workable parameters, as can the available energy.
What can't be known is the probability of this primordial soup producing something. However, if one assumes that probability to be non-zero, then the end result will be life, no matter how long it takes.
I would suspect that something similar to punctuated equilibrium could have been happening on primordial Earth. That some chemical combinations might have originated, and accumulated, that under more normal circumstances could not.
Then when the circumstances changed again, those ready materials may have been the feedstock for more intricate reactions.
It is, of course, unimaginable that lifeless chemicals could have assembled themselves into a self-replicating thing. But our failure of imagination can be assuaged by that concept of a non-zero probability.
A lot of evolution had to occur on Earth before any of the first animals could arrive. Just the building of an oxygen rich atmosphere took not only time, but some pretty interesting footwork among the earliest single cell organisms as well.
If Adam had been plunked down on Earth before those innumerable entities had done their work, he would have had nothing to breathe.
But once those single cells learned how to trap and utilize sunlight to get its energy, life in general was off to the races.