“What happens when the Chinese/Japanese, etc stop buying US bonds? That is the crux of the question.”
I agree completely- then and only then will the house of cards come crashing down. But until that day- which may be decades away or may be much sooner- it will be impossible for the US economy to truly collapse because it’s being subsidized on a massive scale by the countries that actually produce things.
Early indications are that China still wants to keep buying our debt, but with their slowing economy and domestic stimulus spending they won’t have as much money to do so with.
It is a strange dichotomy where it is in the Chinese best interest to keep lending the USA money in order to sell their goods here. It is like a drug dealer extending credit to an addict in order that he be able to buy more drugs. The question is not one of IF we will overdose, but when.
The Chinese are quietly building their reserves of gold, as are oil rich arab countries. This massive Ponzi scheme will end badly and sooner, rather than later I fear. Global trade can only occur when their is trust in currency and in the counterparties ability to pay. The trust is rapidly disappearing in both areas, and the freezing of global trade may well be the catalyst that sets everything in motion.
We could be approaching a global depression, and with the advent of technology and computers, it may engulf us at a speed most can’t comprehend. Depression at the speed of the internet, rather than the slow motion 30’s style. That is what truly frightens me.