Now this new construct completely flies in the face of what you've postulated before about replicable, repeatable and falsifiable...so since you've come to this conclusion for "what happens in nature", you'll no doubt continue to demand all this from ID at the same time no less...???
Funny how naturalistic science gets a free pass from all the shackles you insist for all other branches of science. Where did you learn this?
There are lots of things that can't happen in nature, putting an artificial heart in a human being...but we don't "control or design" the experiments leading up to this feat?
OK, but with evolution we are discussing basic organic chemistry. We design experiments to see what is possible. We do this because of a property of nature called emergence. We cannot anticipate all the properties of a new compound or a novel environmental factor before it exists.
We cannot anticipate the possible pathways to replicators without attempting to make them. And we cannot say anything about the probability of them occurring in nature before knowing what is possible.