Hi John:
I’d like to hear your take on this. It counters what BuckeyeTexan says earlier, here
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2162033/posts?page=675#675
and also what you say.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2162033/posts?page=510#510
Interview, Orly Taitz: Chief Justice Roberts Calls Conference on Obama Challenge: Lightfoot v. Bowen
Monday, January 12, 2009 6:51:42 PM · 510 of 1,165
Congressman Billybob to Kevmo
Good analysis. The issue is beating all kinds of odds against it. That means a better chance of victory, but it doesn’t create or guarantee victory.
Congressman Billybob
Latest article, “The Silence of Snow”
The Declaration, the Constitution, parts of the Federalist, and America’s Owner’s Manual, here.
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2162033/posts?page=862#862
To: BuckeyeTexan; Congressman Billybob; FreeManN; Lurking Libertarian; mlo; Jim Robinson; Alamo-Girl; ..
Math Error Alert.
The odds that the fake CoLB posted by the nom de plume “hayIBaPhorgerie” has the same time of birth as zer0bama (7:24pm) would reflect 24 hours/day * 60 minutes/hour = 1440 minutes/day. = 1/1440
Now let’s process that where 1/N = 0.3. in the previous calculations. (1/N)^5 that all of these cases were forwarded for conference. 0.3^5 * 1/1440 = .00243 * 0.000694 = 0.0000016875 which is ~1 in 1.6875Million. These are not astronomical numbers, they’re actually pretty believable.
862 posted on Friday, January 16, 2009 1:19:47 AM by Kevmo ( It’s all over for this Country as a Constitutional Republic. ~Leo Donofrio, 12/14/08)
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2162033/posts?page=687#687
To: BuckeyeTexan; Congressman Billybob; FreeManN; Lurking Libertarian; mlo; Jim Robinson; Alamo-Girl; ..
It would seem that cert is denied in 70% of all cases without being discussed at conference. It would also seem that if a case is put on the “discuss list” for conference, then one of the justices thought the case worthy of discussion.
Thanks BT. That’s the first time I’ve seen this addressed. I gather that Congressman Billybob’s assessment of 1/200 is a bit too low, and the average troll who says that all cases get forwarded for this informal conference (making the odds 1:1) are too high. Having the odds at 0.3 seems about right.
Now let’s process that where 1/N = 0.3. in the previous calculations.
Using that chance, N, then it’s (1/N)^5 that all of these cases were forwarded for conference. When N was 200, look where we ended up... 0.3^5 * 1/34560 = 0.00000000703125 which is ~1 in 70Billion.
Kevmo - I still stand behind my original comments/posts. I am not retracting them. 70% of all certs are denied without discussion at conference.
What I intended to clarify with my last post was the significance of the docket entries “Distributed for conference” and “Application referred to the court.”
I think your math/odds are still correct. What I can’t confirm based on the docket entries themselves is why the cases were referred to the court. It could be signficant. It could be insignificant.