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Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse
Telegraph ^ | 06 Jan 2009 | Edmund Conway

Posted on 01/08/2009 11:10:20 AM PST by Lorianne

The long-held assumption that US assets - particularly government bonds - are a safe haven will soon be overturned as investors lose their patience with the world's biggest economy, according to Willem Buiter.

Professor Buiter, a former Monetary Policy Committee member who is now at the London School of Economics, said this increasing disenchantment would result in an exodus of foreign cash from the US.

The warning comes despite the dollar having strengthened significantly against other major currencies, including sterling and the euro, after hitting historic lows last year. It will reignite fears about the currency's prospects, as well as sparking fears about the sustainability of President-Elect Barack Obama's mooted plans for a Keynesian-style increase in public spending to pull the US out of recession.

Writing on his blog , Prof Buiter said: "There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets. Old habits die hard. The US dollar and US Treasury bills and bonds are still viewed as a safe haven by many. But learning takes place."

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Government
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To: Lorianne

Buy silver, people, and buy it now.


21 posted on 01/08/2009 11:41:00 AM PST by MahatmaGandu (Remember, remember, the twenty-sixth of November.)
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To: Lorianne

A Euronobody says something about America.


22 posted on 01/08/2009 11:42:28 AM PST by VaBthang4 ("He Who Watches Over Israel Will Neither Slumber Nor Sleep")
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To: Tallguy

Agreed. England, China, maybe Russia? Where would smart investors put their money? In the U.S. even at 0%. It might be long and painful, but not as painful as the rest of the world.


23 posted on 01/08/2009 11:42:28 AM PST by pappyone (New to Freep, still working a tag line.)
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To: Red in Blue PA
Stop whistling past the graveyard.

Not too many here have been more vocal about state of our debt and the failure of Bush to do anything about it, but the strength of the dollar, and our total debt, can and probably will go up at the same time this year.

In the long run (10 to 30 years) we iz all screwed.
24 posted on 01/08/2009 11:45:56 AM PST by WackySam (Is the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on- or by imbeciles who really mean it?)
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To: WackySam
"Cranking up the presses is going to eventually cause inflation, but not necessarily a fall in the dollar."

True enough. But lets not forget, or fail to notice that we are in a period of deflation right now, which will lessen the effects of any future inflation.

Commodity prices are at record lows, which tells us just how much the world economy has slowed. When we see commodity prices in a stable rise, that will be the main indicator of the world economy (especially ours) recovering. I just don't see any indication of that happening in the slightest until spring. Even then I doubt we will see anything spectacular as far as recovery goes this year at all. At best we can hope things don't get any worse.

25 posted on 01/08/2009 11:50:22 AM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: jsh3180
The fall of the US $, which is coming sooner rather than later, will be encouraged by the Treasury Dept. and the Federal Reserve. The massive debt load requires cranking up the printing presses, inflating everything, while deflating the US $. Debt is then paid back with cheaper dollars. The only other choice is for the US to default on it’s debt.

The printing presses may be shifting into a higher gear as we speak.
U.S. debt is losing its appeal in China

26 posted on 01/08/2009 11:52:36 AM PST by OB1kNOb (Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without.)
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To: jsh3180
The massive debt load requires cranking up the printing presses, inflating everything, while deflating the US $. Debt is then paid back with cheaper dollars.

This was always going to happen at some point in our future because of the huge liability that is Social Security. It appears that the current financial downturn is the excuse that they will use to devalue all of our assets so that the government can continue 'playing the game'.

27 posted on 01/08/2009 11:54:01 AM PST by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: MahatmaGandu
"Buy silver, people, and buy it now."

There isn't any. (except fake paper silver)Silver is oversold on paper, if there was a call for delivery, silver prices will jump. But because silver is a much more an industrial commodity than is gold, don't expect much movement in silver prices until all commodities begin to move upwards. Then you might see silver prices jump

28 posted on 01/08/2009 11:55:39 AM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: WackySam

You can’t print endless dollars and not end up making them worthless.


29 posted on 01/08/2009 11:58:32 AM PST by DB
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To: Nathan Zachary
Even then I doubt we will see anything spectacular as far as recovery goes this year at all. At best we can hope things don't get any worse.

I think it is going to get far worse- just not as bad as the rest of the world.
30 posted on 01/08/2009 12:01:12 PM PST by WackySam (Is the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on- or by imbeciles who really mean it?)
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To: Lorianne
What currency is the dollar going to collapse against?

You can only have a currency collapse vis-a-vis one or more other currencies.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

31 posted on 01/08/2009 12:04:10 PM PST by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: WackySam
"I think it is going to get far worse- just not as bad as the rest of the world."

I try to be a little more optimistic. Certainly there will be regional ups and downs, which will make things seem worse or better depending where you live. I think we will get a much clearer picture as spring approaches. There is no doubt that a lot of economic stability will hinge on local infrastructure-make work projects all over the country. whether that results in the kind of spending needed remains to be seen.

32 posted on 01/08/2009 12:11:24 PM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: Lorianne

One can guess as much as desired that a dump of dollar backed assets will take place.

As the professor says ‘old habits die hard’ because the dollar is still viewed as a safe haven.

And that is the key,’safe haven’. In order for the dollar to be dumped, there must be a new safe haven.

And there is no alternative safe haven anywhere because it is the US Market that drives international commerce.

The only way for an alternative safe haven to emerge is for the US economy to collapse completely while another economy emerges as a leader. The Japanese have a shot but they too have problems.

So the bottom line is the professor is blowing smoke and doing nothing more than reflecting exasperation.


33 posted on 01/08/2009 12:18:45 PM PST by Hostage
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To: Tallguy
I completely agree w/ you. Every critical look at U.S. — politically, economically, “morally” — infers that there is something more desirable out there; a better alternative, mankind's ultimate Nirvana! But is there? (AND has there ever been in the history of the world, for that matter?)

Ignoring what leftist, anti-American politial hacks predict (desire!), money instinctively gravitates to most secure, and looking out over the vast wide world, what's the alternative, even when everyone knows Santa Claus is not real!

34 posted on 01/08/2009 12:18:57 PM PST by parisa
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To: Nathan Zachary

Or, maybe Germany’s inability to sell all of its bonds is the canary in the coal mine...the first salvo in a domino collapse that begins with the G7 and ends with the United States. I have to laugh at CNBC...if they were around in January 1930, they’d be telling folks the worst is over and a rally is underway...don’t miss it!!!


35 posted on 01/08/2009 12:22:55 PM PST by johnnycap
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To: visualops
Why do I get the feeling that anti-American jerks the world over are trying their best to drag this country down?

Yup. It's them furriners. The fact that the treasury is just printing new money like there is no tomorrow has nothing to do with this.

Sigh

36 posted on 01/08/2009 12:34:43 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: Nathan Zachary

Who said to buy it on paper? I’ve been buying 1oz Eagles since they were $4 each. The coins are going to be your grocery money if the fiat currency goes to hell.


37 posted on 01/08/2009 12:38:20 PM PST by MahatmaGandu (Remember, remember, the twenty-sixth of November.)
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To: Hostage
The only way for an alternative safe haven to emerge is for the US economy to collapse completely while another economy emerges as a leader.

That won't happen until the USA break up into the communists and people / states that want to be free.

38 posted on 01/08/2009 12:41:26 PM PST by Centurion2000 (To protect and defend ... against all enemies, foreign and domestic .... by any means necessary.)
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To: MrEdd

I am not absolving our gubmint of anything. That is independent of the actions and motives of people like Willem Buiter.


39 posted on 01/08/2009 6:08:21 PM PST by visualops (portraits.artlife.us or visit my freeper page)
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