I am by no means an expert on the economy but will give my 2 cents anyway. (I am a FReeper so I can) I used to be a HUGE shopper. Very much like many Americans. Spent more than I should have.
The past few years, (especially Christmas) I have spent very little on presents, decorations and useless things.
This Christmas I spent next to nothing. Just food, very small tree and gifts for the small children in my family.
Christmas for me has turned into a celebration of Christ. Church services, good food and family. It was the nicest Christmas I can remember.
Anyway, long story short, I went to the mall on the evening of December 23 to buy a gift for Hubby's boss.
(I live in a highly populated area of Northern Calif.)
The mall was extremely empty. Shelves were full and no lines to speak of.
The last time I have seen the stores this way was during the Carter era. Actually this might have been worse.
I am sure on-line buying is up. But maybe not for luxuries. I buy things I need on-line for the deals. Pet food, toiletries, some food, etc...
I can't see how this economy is OK. I don't know if this is a manufactured false crises or if it is normal and expected with the flow of things.
But I do believe spending is down and going to get worse.
I especially agree with you that there will be continued contraction in consumer spending-—maybe even permanently.
It’s kind of like when many people boycotted French goods after the French government tried to undermine the U.S. war efforts. After discovering that, yes, there are many good wines and cheeses in the world that do not cost an arm and a leg, many consumers permanently changed their buying habits.
France could become our next best friend, but if you’re now happy drinking Australian wine and eating Brie from Wisconsin, sorry, they lose.
Once the “retail Christmas bubble” starts to pop, it will accelerate. The craziness was unsustainable. Without retail Christmas, the whole business model of retail will have to change. Merchants will have to make it on what they sell throughout the year, with no banking on a huge two-week buying period.
Of course, as Christmas becomes more and more completely about family and, for some, faith, there will be room (time, money and energy) for other holidays to start their run toward the cycle of inevitable excess. (Halloween is just about done with being a children’s event, for example.)
“Holidays” such as Super Bowl Sunday will get a little more oomph. Already grocers really notice increased sales for SBS. Since that’s a friends and family eating event, it will probably continue to get a little more elaborate over time.