[Al B.]

Show me one other example of any agency or group with any track record of predicting oil prices beside the Alaska Department of Revenue using a price for this above $70.

I haven't seen ANY estimates of oil prices starting from mid-2009 and don't intend to look. If there are any, I'm sure you will point them out, although I doubt you can make the case for their accuracy based on the extraordinary market conditions under which we currently experience. My point was that you could make a case for the $74 based on the current plan to reinflate the economy (wrong as that strategy is), OR just looking at 100+ years of boom/bust chart patterns for commodities.

The last thing I will say is that this issue of what price to submit is more than just someone's estimate, right or wrong. There is politics and good governance involved. Her submission was just a starting point. If revenue forecasts are going to be dramatically lowered with concurrent draconian budget cuts, what's in Alaska's best interests is that it be a shared decision between the governor and the legislature. I believe Gov. Palin is trying to force the legislature to come to grips with that. If they don't or won't, I have no doubt she will do what is necessary to protect Alaska's financial stability....none whatsoever.

JMO. Out.

[thackney]

I haven't seen ANY estimates of oil prices starting from mid-2009

From the Department of Energy:

WTI prices are expected to average $51 per barrel in 2009. Alaska Crude sells for a discount to WTI.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. Petroleum
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html#US_Petroleum_Markets

My point was that you could make a case for the $74 based on the current plan to reinflate the economy

No you can't. And the Alaska Department of Revenue doesn't even try, it simple refers to the $74 being based upon earlier estimates before the current market conditions.