|
Posted on 12/06/2008 10:34:37 AM PST by rabscuttle385
|
Schiff needs to lighten up. The U.S. Government is printing money in massive amounts to stabilize our economy.
John Maynard Keynes rulz!!
/heavy sarc
Yippee for Schiff.
Hey, he was right for once. That doesn’t mean he suddenly benefits from prescience and will be right going forward. These perma-bears are now suddenly regarded as seers, and we are supposed to shake and quiver at their every dire prediction. Sorry, but count me out.
Could it all happen? Sure it could. However, I for one am going to continue doing what I’ve always done: trying to be a productive member of our economy and society, and doing what I can do to help us get out of this mess. Some folks on these threads seem to relish the idea of hunkering down in some remote location, fully-stocked with canned beans and ammo and a pile of gold coins buried in the back when “it all goes down”. Again, count me out.
Not sure if I buy his, “invest global” with the problems other countries are facing. In those places where layoffs are not that easy to accomplish the pain will last even longer.
I agree that there will be a bond collapse and when that does you can forget real estate. You can expect huge inflation to emerge once money flees Treasuries and with the oil collapse there will be a huge bounce back.
1) Go long gas and oil
2) Go long on metals like Gold and Silver
3) Short the bond market
4) Don’t own real estate
5) Buy some foreign currencies to hedge against ours
6) Stay short on the major indexes
You can’t really time a crash much like you cannot time a boom. I will remember that people around here were screaming about the real estate market for a year or longer before it crashed then took the economy with it. They were talking up gold when it was at $700 before it spiked almost 50%.
If you study the history of markets and boom and bust cycles there is so much wrong here that I don’t see how anyone can expect things to get better. Far too much damage was done with the credit bubble that was made far worse by the complex financial products that were based on crap.
GM,Ford,Chrysler and Obama now have been given a golden opportunity.
The auto makers can file for bankruptcy and come out with a much better price structure for their autos.
Obama can beat the bushes for every investment crook he can find and then prosecute the hell out of them. He can get both Democrat and Republicans while the voters cheer him on.
The prosecutions may not be show trials of the Stalin era but they will have the effect of increasing Obama’s cult status.
I think Schiff is making a heavy bet on oil. That’s why he’s humping $140.00 a barrel crude.
His take on tens of millions being out of work while crude prices rise and inflation rises rapidly is something that doesn’t make economic sense.
They have suddenly become more fiscally conservative now that it serves their desire to hold onto power. Of course, it remains to be seen if they force unions to give up any real concessions to save the Big 3 going forward.
They're not jumping on lenders who have tightened their credit requirements, so that they get a breather from being forced to lend to losers who won't pay back their loans.
By the way, did you see Odinga's coming to town?
TBills meaning cash have done beeter than gold. He has been wrong on that but right on many other things
TBills meaning cash have done beeter than gold. He has been wrong on that but right on many other things
Schiff believes in hyper-inflation
His scenarios are in denial of our present deflation... Deflation could extend for years just as in the 1930s
A broken clock is right twice a day.
The government can stop deflation any time it wants by printing money. Say, to service the national debt, or to finance New Deal II, or even to fight a war (civil or otherwise).
Of course, this is likely to cause hyperinflation and wipe out America’s savings, but do you really trust Washington to act in our best interests?
The Dems are happy to provide handouts to the Big 3, but there will be strings attached. The footage of Barney Frank grilling the execs makes their agenda crystal clear. In particular they want to badger the automakers to sell more “energy efficient” vehicles that nobody wants, and to get on board with nationalized health care.
Please do not mistake this for fiscal conservatism. They don’t give a hoot about spending our money wisely. What they really care about is expanding government and controlling other people, same as any other liberal.
Schiff is not a “perma-bear”. Just because he was early on his call, does not make him wrong. If the US government hadn’t hadn’t thrown everything except the kitchen sink into the economy since the dot.bomb bubble collapsed and 9/11, he would have been a lot “righter” a lot earlier. He was early on his call only because he discounted the aggressiveness of the government.
Today he is right DESPITE the aggressiveness of the US government, which this time is throwing in the kitchen sink along with everything else. I think he is overly pessimistic in his call that we are heading for a long depression, but I am certainly going to keep a wary eye in that direction and not discount the remote possibiliy, not as long as he feels that way.
Pretty cavalier to call him a perma-bear only because the Government delayed the inevitable.
Schiff. Roubini. Whitney. All scorned. All marginalized. And all right. Oh, and all are still pessimistic. Schiff is the only one calling a depression, but all of them are predicting a lot more pain and none of them are saying housing has bottomed, or the stock markets have bottomed. All agree that credit is easing but we are still in a deep credit crisis.
They have been right all along.
Schiff is dead right that the bond market is due to collapse. I don’t know how hard. The dollar will plunge and rates and inflation will soar. I don’t buy into the 20% inflation Schiff is predicting, but it is going to be as bad or worse than the late 70s. The only question is, how long is disinflation going to last before we see it.
“The markets always do what they should do, just not when they should do it.” I’ve been early on all of my calls. Right, but early. I constantly forget how much government interferes in “free markets” and I constantly forget how stupid my fellow men are. I think they are all alert and informed like I am, and I pay for it every time, leaving money on the table every time.
You would think I would learn to stop underestimating the stupidity of the average person or the tendency of government to always screw with the economy.
I’m still confused why somebody with solid money like Warren Buffet or Bill Gates doesn’t just agree to buy GM or FORD after they declare bankruptcy. Just agree up front. “Declare bankruptcy and I buy you.” Being respected businessmen, there would be a lot of confidence in their ability to turn the companies around, whether that confidence is warranted or not. By declaring bankruptcy prior to the sale, the new owner would be guaranteed bankruptcy protection for the needed reorganization, especially to break the unions, which, like it or not, is the reason that these companies are hemmorrhaging money. Buyers who would otherwise not buy from a bankrupt FORD or GM, would be assured by the incoming “successful businessman” taking over the company and would continue to buy their products, thinking that a solution would be forthcoming, which it would once the stranglehold of the unions is broken.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
