what I am saying is very simple: Trust your mother, but cut the cards anyway.
As far as brokers go, they’re salesmen. They have neither the background nor resources to know what’s going on in the market.
Right now there are a ton of people making money in the market, but not the little guy.
You might be interested in Taleb’s interview on charlie rose. You can download at the charlie rose website. Taleb is the guy who wrote The Black Swan and one of a handful of hedge funders who is actually making money. The thing runs about 20 minutes