The predominant difference is no Obama coat tails."
I beg to differ, but you are both right and wrong to a degree. I'm not splitting hairs for the sake of it, as the conclusion is very important for 2010.
First, Obama DID have coattails. That's why he won Virginia, Florida and NC, and why Georgia was so close. Net turnout was unchanged from 2004, but blacks were energized by the prospects of a black candidate. That's also why the Senate and House majorities for the Dems grew -- why Liddy Dole lost. Second, the primary reason why Saxby won with an expected margin of 58 to 42 is that turnout in the runoff was much smaller, like an off-year election. On November 4th he won a plurality versus Martin of 1.8 to 1.6 million votes. On December 2nd he won by 1.2 to 0.9 million votes. Turnout was 1.3 million fewer people. That's a lot of voters. And they're the type who never really vote anyway, don't really care much about the Senate, and only voted because of the black man. Many wouldn't have turned out had Hillary been the candidate.
Sorry to differ, but Obama did have coattails. If the Dec 2nd turnout had occurred nationwide on Nov 4th, McCain would have won the Presidency and the Repubblies might've had a chance taking back the House.
I'm not discounting Palin's time spent in GA. I think she's wonderful candidate. But looking at the details, it was turnout that mattered most.
On to 2010 and what this means. The party in power always loses seats in the first off-year election. ALWAYS. After Clinton's first two years the GOP took over both houses of Congress for the first time in 50 years. Why? Because the nation has never been as liberal as the Democrats in Congress -- that's always been America's political scam -- and when the Dems had both branches plus the Presidency, plus a fawning media, plus the wisdom and truth from Rush Limbaugh, the voters saw the truth.
The nation will be somewhat weary of Obama after two years. He will not be the Messiah or magician that the voters thought he was. That idiot woman in Florida will still be paying her own rent and gas bills. There will still be war and violence in the world, and I'll bet dollars to donuts that there will still be tens of thousands of troops in Iraq. Obama will have made some mistakes and look like the inexperienced buffoon that he really is. Obama will have uttered a few more of those precious gaffes that he did on the campaign that show his true colors. World politicians will realize that he truly is a lightweight. CIA and special forces budgets will grow, not shrink -- no peace dividend. God forbid there is another terrorist incident and a weak response, or another Hurricane Katrina, and the nation sees that the Gov't was as unprepared for these new incidents as before.
Democrats will be dispirited. Leftists will be howling. Socialists will be screaming. Talk radio will be gleeful. And the blacks and other low-probability voters will lose their joy about the first black President.
That means a huge Republican victory in 2010. Low turnout, motivated conservatives, angry and dispirited Dem voters, and the marginally-motivated blacks stay home. Both houses of Congress back, or at least the House of Representatives.
The Dems KNOW this. That's why Obama is pulling together a centrist Cabinet. That's why Nancy Pelosi has announced that she will be leading a centrist House (see today's Drudge Report -- "On the day after the election, Pelosi assured that the country must be governed from the middle"). They Dems know that if they swing left in Obama's first two years their fate is like Clinton's. They hope that a first term that is centrist might keep the electorate happy. Yes, they have to beg their constituents to still show up in 2010 but they hope that the marginal voters will too.
I don't think this ploy will work. The voters who showed up only for Obama will still not vote in 2010, like they didn't on 12/2.
Sorry for the long-winded reply but I find the results in Georgia to be very good news, but for different reasons than you two gents.
Even a centrist stampede back to the GOP will not produce 1994 style results unless we can stop shamnesty.
I differ with your differing with me. I don’t see where we disagree, in part because I presented such a small and unassailable target with which to disagree. But perhaps I wasn’t clear. I meant to say that the predominant difference between the general election and the runoff in Georgia is there were no Obama coat tails in the runoff. There are a number of other, lesser factors, such as Jim Martin is a total weenie, Saxby had a focused, disciplined and effective message, and the independent groups poured resources into Georgia and blanketed the base with their messages. And, Sara. In any case, you offer a sound analysis. Although I am beginning to think Obama is more shrewd than we have been giving him credit for.
Best regards,
Ahem. 1934 and 2002