Posted on 11/30/2008 2:59:10 PM PST by lewisglad
The Battle for the GOP Is On - Palin, Romney or JindalNovember 30th, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags: Leave a comment | Trackback The latest polls of Republican and all voters indicate that the conservative Republican base favors candidates voters in general do not think too highly of.
For instance, 24.4% Republican voters want Governor Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for president in 2012. Only 13.4% of all voters agree.
At the same time, Governor Mitt Romney ranks second among all voters, six points behind Palin, but leads among all voters (be it barely).
Among conservatives, both represent an entirely different faction: Palin is the Christian conservative while Romney is the darling of (elite and well educated) fiscal conservatives. These two battled it out earlier this year with fiscal conservatives favoring Romney, Christian conservatives supporting Governor Mike Huckabee, and the party ending up with Senator John McCain as the compromise candidate.
A compromise figure not able to make life truly difficult for now president-elect Barack Obama.
Most remarkable about the figures, however, is that there is a third candidate who does relatively better (meaning: smaller gap) among all voters than among Republicans: Governor Bobby Jindal. Jindal has quite a low profile nationally, yet he already ranks third in both categories. When all voters are included, the gap between him and Romney is only 1.2%, which is remarkable.
Huckabee fares less well; he is fourth with only 9.7% among Republicans and 8.0% among all voters.
This while Huckabee was the favorite of the Christian conservative base.
So what happened to Huckabee? Palin. Although Huckabee could count on the support of Christian conservatives during the primaries, they all flocked to Palin during the general election campaign. Palin became their candidate, their darling even. The defeat made her more not less popular among this group of conservative voters for they consider her a martyr.
The above means that the Republican Party could very well nominate a person who is deemed anti-intellectual, simple, naive and overly socially conservative in 2012 or that the war between the fiscal conservative and social conservative base will continue with at least one side staying home on election day, thereby ensuring Obama a second term.
That is, unless Palin can improve her image, studies hard and convince libertarian and fiscal conservatives that she is more than just a socon (unlikely). Or if Romney will succeed in courting Evangelicals and convincing them that either his Mormon faith should not be a problem to them (unlikely) or that his faith and their faith teach the same basic principles and values (less unlikely, but not altogether likely).
Of course there is a third option, an option I consider most likely and, especially, most in the interest of the Republican Party: that conservative voters will agree on a compromise candidate who endorses conservative views in most ways. In other words, a person who is a convinced social conservative (yet not overly so, for it would make it easy to destroy a candidate who is as socially conservative and as vocal about it as Palin and Huckabee are), who also has a track record of fiscal conservatism and who sympathizes with many libertarian policies.
At this moment, it seems to me that neither Huckabee nor Palin nor Romney fit the bill (although Romney would certainly be a better choice than the other two). Jindal, however, does.
For Jindal, 2008 and especially 2009 offer a tremendous opportunity to raise his profile nationally, to court conservatives of all stripes and to implement policies rooted in conservatism. He will have to use his time in Louisiana in order to show voters that conservative policies work and improve their daily lives. He he has already done so to a tremendous degree, but the most difficult times are ahead of him. The recession is likely to worsen in the coming months with Americans in all states suffering financially. Jindal will have to control the damage and improve his state at the same time.
Much of that is true, this BS is just BS, we have a governors race next here in the sate and terry Clintoon running. Just damn.
“That’s nice, but it remains to be seen if it will play outside of Alaska.”
So far her high approval ratings don’t appear to be limited to the state that she governs so effectively judging from what her people think of it.
Here are her poll numbers among national republicans.
Rasmussin: 11/7/08
91 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin.
65 percent of Republicans have a very favorable view of Palin.
8 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Palin.
3 percent of Republicans have a very unfavorable view of Palin.
64 percent of Republicans say Palin is their top choice for the GOP 2012 presidential nominee.
you really shouldn't go dissing the pope
No way in hell for Ron Paul.
Negative on Jindal.
“I know nobody want’s to hear it, but Sarah Palin is dead. the media, if they haven’t done so already, will make sure she is done and the fork is stuck in her by 2010 so she can’t even get re-elected.”
Ridiculous her ratings in Alaska and in the republican party are astronomical, see post 102.
Jindal is good and Palin will help uplift all of the young conservative choices, and she will prevent them from being smothered in infancy by the old entrenched, moderate, leadership and power structure that has been bedeviling the republican party for so many years.
Give me a F'n break, we've already had to deal with 3 years of politicking and Obama isn't even in office yet!!!
Damn the MSM, give us 3 years to rest from all this crap for heavens sake.............
this Redneck~Racist Family is also strong for SARAH PALIN.
There are others with the experience and capability. I’m not ready to concede the GOP to anyone right now. It is fruitless to be choosing sides today.
Frankly, right now we need to emphasize Obama’s ignorance and inexperience, as well as his poor choices and decision making capabilities before Republicans even think of who our standard bearer will be.
I’d go with Mark Sanford from South Carolina, at this point.
Sanford may be more liberal on national security
George W. Bush somehow managed to get re-elected in 2004 with less than 50% approval ratings and a media that loathed him. I don't think the media can kill a candidate. A candidate dies when they choose to die. Dan Quayle, for example, had enough of politics after he and Bush 41 lost in 1992. He formed a multi-billion dollar private equity firm and is now happy being a billionaire. As the article headline says, "They're Not Telling Quayle Jokes at Cerberus".
I wouldn't underestimate the Barracuda. If she decides to run, she'll run on her own terms with her own message, and she'll be a very formidable opponent. Everyone thought that Reagan was finished in 1976, and look what happened four short years later.
Thomas Sowell wrote about what Democrats thought about Reagan back in 1980 by citing Meg Greenfield in the Washington post:
It was the wisdom of the other contenders and of most Republican Party leaders, too, not to mention of practically everyone in Democratic politics, that Reagan was: too old, too extreme, too marginal and not nearly smart enough to win the nomination. The Democrats, in fact, when they weren’t chortling about him, were fervently hoping he would be the nominee. When he carried the convention in Detroit, people I knew in the Carter White House were ecstatic.
We've completely forgotten how vilified Reagan was by the MSM in his day, and keep in mind that back then they didn't have talk radio and fox news and the internet and the myriad of conservative groups that have sprung up since then. If the message is right and the messenger is honest, the MSM can not destroy a person. And no one should underestimate the power of the American public to forget. If Hillary Clinton and Newt Gingrich and Dick Morris were able to repair their images, Sarah Palin can certainly repair hers.
BTW, any one want to make a bet that the MSM will be talking about Palin constantly tomorrow as she campaigns in Georgia for Saxby Chambliss? They'll be all over her again because she's poised to draw huge crowds.
Palin/Jindal
We have Paul Ryan here in WI. A conservative as far as I can tell. He could be a contender for higher office by 2012.
Who knows,,,but the GOP should get smart and stop with the RINOS already. Look where they’ve gotten us.
“Huckabee is not a conservative by a long shot, and I think he is left of center on his religious views.”
well he’s not a friend of school choice
Exactly, and at this point in time that should be our TOP priority over all else.
“Not as long as long as he is a global warming nutjob.”
no, he’s not. He’s against cap and trade or a carbon tax.
Newt:
And because the left may well believe this is an ideological election, there’s a fair chance they’re going to come in and try, immediately, to reestablish the moratorium on looking for oil offshore and they’re going to try to establish immediately passing a tax program disguised as cap-and-trade, but which in fact will be a tax program, which will raise the cost of electricity, create scarcity of energy, slow down investments in the United States, weaken the American economy, and accelerate the sending of jobs overseas.
Not Romney.
ROTFLMAO!
I’m in good company!
“I’m an independent, I like her.”
you’re a freeper...doesn’t count. Palin has to impress people who don’t see themselves as liberals or conservatives.
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