I think he’ll win by more. Many thousands of voters went to the polls for Obama alone, and maybe do get the nuances of giving the Savior another vote in the Senate. And besides, they’d have to stand in line again, did enough of that for this year.
In the early voting results I saw recently, the black vote was running 23% of the total, down from 31% in the general. If that trend continues, I don't see how Martin wins unless the Republicans just don't turn out. That's why they're bringing in Sarah IMO, to prop that up.