His replacement will cave. This is what the church has done historically and it isn’t going to change now. Sorry. Too many cafeteria Catholics with too much money disagree for the church to make a firm stand. Imagine the US Catholic Church with 25% of the current membership or less. That is what is at stake. The church will flinch at dumping the majority of US Catholics, and the majority of US Catholics are not in agreement with the Holy See. Like it or not.
Are you Catholic? Pope B16 has ushered in a new Springtime, and he knows that the Church may become smaller. Will this pastor be dragged down? Perhaps. I hope not.
But, he is one of a new breed of orthodox priests who believe ‘be not afraid’.
He won't be replaced, and nothing will happen to him as far as discipline from his superiors is concerned.
Any 'Catholic' who disagrees with Rome on this matter are not Catholics, whatever they think.