Posted on 11/12/2008 5:02:53 PM PST by parksstp
I don't mean to scare anybody, but just looking at the seat matchups, regardless of how bad the BHO, Reid, and Pelosi screw it up, the Dems are still going to be in the advantage chair. It's time to get proactive:
North Dakota, you're a red state, act like it. Nevada, you get the chance to throw Reid out! Don't blow it! Colorado, this is your chance to redeem yourself Wisconsin, you got any conservatives up there?
Sam Brownback (KS) (Announced Retirement) - Likely Safe R
Chris Dodd (CT) (Possible Retirement) - Likely Safe D
Democratic Incumbents up for Reelection
Blanche Lincoln (AR)- Likely Safe D
Barbara Boxer (CA)- Likely Safe D
Ken Salazar (CO) - Possible Pick-up if Bill Owens runs
Joe Biden (DE) Seat Special Election - Likely Safe D
Daniel Inouye (HI) - Likely Safe D
Vacant Obama Seat (IL) - Possible Pick-up if the GOP can get someone like Ditka to run and depends on who is appointed to replace Obama and whether or not that person seeks a full term
Evan Bayh (IN) - Likely Safe D
Barbara Mikulski (MD) - GOP may try to run competitive race if Michael Steele decides to run. Otherwise likely safe D
Harry Reid (NV)- Could be competitive with the right GOP candidate out of NV.
Chucky Schumer (NY) - likely safe D, even if someone like Pataki,Rudy, or even Peter King decided to run
Byron Dorgan (ND) - Possible pick-up with the right GOP candidate. Any names?
Ron Wyden (OR) - Likely Safe D
Patrick Leahy (VT) - Likely Safe D
Patty Murray (WA) - Possible pickup if Dino Rossi wanted to try and stage a Senate campaign
Russ Feingold (WI) - Leans D, possibly competitive with the right (R)
About a maximum of 7 Dem Seats could be played for
GOP
Richard Shelby (AL) - Likely Safe (R)
Lisa Murkowski (AK) - Possible Loss if Anchorage Mayor decides to run again. Depends also on whether Palin will seek reelection for Gov or attempt to run for Senate. Murkowski has been plagued by scandals.
John McCain (AZ) - Possible loss if McCain decides to retire or if Arizona Gov Janet Napolitano decides to run. If McCain retires, possible GOP candidates would be JD Hayworth or maybe our own favorite Sheriff Joe.
Mel Martinez (FL) - Possible Loss, will depend heavily on who the Democrat nominee is. Rumor has Robert Wexler possibly seeking the seat.
Johnny Isakson (GA) - likely Safe R
Mike Crapo (ID) - Likely Safe R
Chuck Grassley (IA) - Competitive, but should stay R
Jim Bunning (KY) - Likely Safe R
David Vitter (LA) - Appears to have survived scandal and should be safe R.
Kit Bond (MO) - Competitive, depending on whether which Carnahan runs or whether Dick Gephardt decides to run
Judd Gregg (NH) - Possible loss assuming everything else we've seen in New England recently. The last GOP man standing
Richard Burr (NC) - Another competitive race, but leans to R
George Voinovich (OH) - Competitive, and interestingly our favorite SoS, Jennifer Brunner is considering a run? Guess she gets a 200,000 vote head start
Tom Coburn (OK) - likely Safe R
Arlen Spector (PA) - Likely Loss. Bush saved him last time. The question is whether he'll draw a primary opponent (Toomey, Santorum) and whether or not that candidate can win in PA is grim given how the 2008 elections went. Would Ed Rendell consider running for the Dems?
Jim Demint(SC) - likely Safe R
John Thune (SD) - likely Safe R, though he could face a rematch from Daschle if he doesn't get a job in the Obama Administration
Bob Bennett (UT) - likely Safe R
Potential Democratic Targets: 10
We are Ctr right in this country, and 2 years of uncontested Dem rule will lead a hangover. IF the GOP gets back to basics and finds competent leadership, they will outperform.
Also, we need to map out Dems to go after in the HOUSE races. Let’s do this !
Also, we need to map out Dems to go after in the HOUSE races. Let’s do this !
most of the conservatives wised up and left WI as soon as they could...
I would really like to see Hoosiers defeat the do nothing Bayh. He has done nothing in the Senate except wait to be chosen as someone’s Vice President. His father was a popular liberal senator who eventually became too left for Indiana and was defeated by Dan Quayle. I would like to see us make a real race, even if it is a long shot. We cannot afford to take anything for granted.
Sam Brownback (KS) (Announced Retirement) - R+
Chris Dodd (CT) (Possible Retirement) - D++
Democratic Incumbents up for Reelection
Blanche Lincoln (AR)- D
Barbara Boxer (CA)- D++
Ken Salazar (CO) - D
Joe Biden (DE) - D++
Daniel Inouye (HI) - D++
Vacant Obama Seat (IL) - D+
Evan Bayh (IN) - D+
Barbara Mikulski (MD) - D+
Harry Reid (NV)- D
Chucky Schumer (NY) - D+
Byron Dorgan (ND) - D, almost D+
Ron Wyden (OR) - D, almost D+
Patrick Leahy (VT) - D++
Patty Murray (WA) - D+
Russ Feingold (WI) - D+
GOP
Richard Shelby (AL) - R+
Lisa Murkowski (AK) - R+
John McCain (AZ) - R
Mel Martinez (FL) - R
Johnny Isakson (GA) - R+
Mike Crapo (ID) - R+
Chuck Grassley (IA) - R+
Jim Bunning (KY) - R+
David Vitter (LA) - R
Kit Bond (MO) - R
Judd Gregg (NH) - R - Possible loss assuming everything else we’ve seen in New England recently. The last GOP man standing
Richard Burr (NC) - R
George Voinovich (OH) - R
Tom Coburn (OK) - R++
Arlen Spector (PA) - R
Jim Demint(SC) - R+
John Thune (SD) - R++
Bob Bennett (UT) - R++
Time to focus on state races, reps this next time around; then we focus on federal after we have (taken-back) solidified some of the states!!..
Pace! There are still a few of us left up here. We are just outweighed by Madison and Milwaukee. We can’t go farther North (Canada, you know), looks like a last resort to head for Idaho or Utah if it gets as crazy as Minnesota (Frankensota?).
If the senate is out of reach, concentrate on the House.
Fixed your list, based on my understandings of the states. Gave Rs and Ds, with + or double+ for those state leaning heavily left or right...
...
all being said, for 2010:
KS: VERY unlikely a D would win a senate seat here, way too red overall
CT: VERY unlikely a R would win a senate seat here, way too blue overall
...
Democratic Incumbents up for Reelection
Blanche Lincoln (AR)- conservative state, but held by senate Ds for a while; would probably take a super-strong R or a personal scandal/fault by the D
Barbara Boxer (CA)- D++; likely impossible
Ken Salazar (CO) - D - libertarianish state; moving D, but could be taken with super-strong R or a personal scandal/fault by the D
Joe Biden (DE) - D++ - impossible; state just approved gay marriage - way too liberal - lost cause for 2010 money-wise
Daniel Inouye (HI) - D++; totally impossible unless he retires and the R governor runs
Vacant Obama Seat (IL) - D+; most likely impossible unless you have a RINO who is hugely, hugely popular, still, chances are like 10-20%
Evan Bayh (IN) - D+; very unlikely - Bayh is VERY popular and well-liked and been there for years and years; he’d have to retire or have his seat vacated through appointment
Barbara Mikulski (MD) - D++; impossible - super-liberal state
Harry Reid (NV)- D; oddly enough, one of the more probably ones; moderate to lean-right state; almost got beat 6 years ago (he only won by less than 500 votes); In spotlight too much, so people seeing what he’s doing (think Daschle); in fact, I’d target him as a top 3 to get rid of ;)
Chucky Schumer (NY) - D+; unlikely; HOWEVER, has tied himself too much to Fannie/Freddie and other scandels; if those come to light with some hard-pressing Rs (lol) or total economic burst further even than now, he’s toast if Guliani runs against him
Byron Dorgan (ND) - D, almost D+; been there FOREVER - they won’t remove him without MAJOR reason or unless he quits or scandal; he won’t go easily as it may flip to R and they know that...
Ron Wyden (OR) - D, almost D+, unlikely without scandal or severe disgust with Ds, more unlikely in just 2 years because bluer state than others on the D/D+ line
Patrick Leahy (VT) - D++ - practically impossible
Patty Murray (WA) - D+ - almost to practically impossible
Russ Feingold (WI) - D+ - very well-liked and been there for years; almost to practically impossible
“Sam Brownback (KS) (Announced Retirement) - Likely Safe R”
I have to disagree with you there. Sebelius anyone?
and for the GOP, my feelings:
Richard Shelby (AL) - R+ - very unlikely, unless he’s bumped in the primary, lol
Lisa Murkowski (AK) - R+ - unlikely, unless in the primary
John McCain (AZ) - R - who knows, lol
Mel Martinez (FL) - R - I think this will most likely stay R; Florida seems to like having one R and one D ;)
Johnny Isakson (GA) - R+ - unlikely upset in a non-president election year ;)
Mike Crapo (ID) - R+ - I don’t know much about this Senator, but I doubt the very red ID will vote D
Chuck Grassley (IA) - R+; way to well known and been there way too long; will be re-elected in an election off year unless a scandal or he retires
Jim Bunning (KY) - R+; unlikely to lose - conservative state
David Vitter (LA) - R - ditto above
Kit Bond (MO) - R - not sure, haven’t researched, but MO people sure seem to have a high turnover rate among senators, lol...
Judd Gregg (NH) - R - “Possible loss assuming everything else we’ve seen in New England recently. The last GOP man standing” - I agree with this...
Richard Burr (NC) - R - don’t know him that well, but unlikely - still a conservative state in an off-presidential election year
George Voinovich (OH) - R; probably the most vulnerable seat next to Gregg in NH
Tom Coburn (OK) - R++ - absolutely impossible
Arlen Spector (PA) - R - possible, but he’s pretty RINO and well-known, and luckily has an off election year
Jim Demint(SC) - R+ - unlikely - way conservative state, well-known
John Thune (SD) - R++ - very unlikely; I don’t think Daschle has a chance in h*ll of taking back this seat; Thune barely lost to Johnson, by just a few hundred votes in 2002. Remember, he went to bed 2000+ votes ahead with only the Native American resevations/surrounding counties to count and the probability was like 80-90% that he’d win - wouldn’t you know that 90% of those counties went to Johnson, all together giving Johnson a few hundred votes the next morning. Thune did not contest the election, but beat Daschle pretty well 2 years later. Thune is very well-respected in SoDak and it’s a very conservative state. People in SoDak think Daschle went way too liberal (some think her used to be a good guy, but sold his sole to the left wing/hollywood once he was Majority leader - and the people there remember that)...
Bob Bennett (UT) - R++ - unlikely in this way-conservative state
If conservatives sit back and do nothing until the last minute, we will lose at the local level again in 010. We need to be out there right now, talking to people, pushing the best conservative candidates and supporting them with $$. On the state and local level, we need to get those candidates out there early and often so that their names and faces are household words. If you are young and conservative, consider running for local office and start now, being involved in the community at every level possible. It’s all about self-promotion. A candidate can’t sit back and depend on a few TV ads to get him/her elected. Darn, I wish I was young again.
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