Beam me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 11/07/2008 2:43:41 PM PST by Sub-Driver
'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
From a lecture delivered by the late Michael Crichton at the California Institute of Technology on Jan. 17, 2003:
Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two-week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation:
N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL
Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live.
This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses -- just so we're clear -- are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead. Now we're asked to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future? And make financial investments based on that prediction? Has everybody lost their minds?
The Drake Equation is pure science fiction of the kind that will never come true in any form...
This is a great article. I have never fallen for the global warming hoax. As a kid I remember being taught that we were entering a new ice age. I told my 10yr old that the other night since they are learning about Global Warming. He thinks global warming is better than a mini ice age....
ping
This is an astounding article about recent proof that the weather increases and decreases in temperature are due to sun spot activity. A absolute must read for anyone who desires the answer in scientific but simple language about a new theory and scientific test that that prove it. Please let me know if you have read the article and what you think.
Spread the news far and wide!
The Drake equation is pure hoakum, not science.
The Seti project has not come up with much, by the way, and it appears more and more likely that we are the only ones out here who are alive and who can communicate.
Is their life in other planetary systems? Probably. Very rare and probably only at the viral or bacterial level.
It is possible because when large asteroids have hit our planet great amounts of dust were blown into space. Some of the dust being full of microorganisms may have landed somewhere and in the least the remains could be discovered. I am sure if current scientist found evidence of the remains of one microorganism they will rejoice greatly that evidence has been found that life has evolved on other planet.
No we didn't... Now go back to sleep, we were never here..
state of fear...required reading.
Thanks-and welcome to FR.
The problem is the distance between life bearing planets. Let's say the closest is 10 million light years away. A civilization would have to evolve to the point where it's understanding of the physical universe and it's technology advance to the point where it can embark on a minimum 10 million year voyage to earth at the speed of light, which all experts agree is impossible. Now this also requires that we occupy earth for at least 10 million years for them to know we are here and another 10 million for them to get here.
On second thought, maybe they did come here to study the dinosaurs but they become extinct before the trip ended. They are still here, explains the UFO sightings, but find us completely uninteresting.
Drake’s Equation isn’t science fiction. It’s interesting to play with as a STARTING point in considering the problem, but it can not answer the question it poses.
As far as it goes, Drake’s Equation is a perfectly legitimate algebraic representation describing the unknown. People however misuse it by pretending they have enough data to define the expressions and yield a valid answer. I think there are also additional necessary expressions omitted from the original equation that would effect the final numbers.
There have been previous threads on the general subject. Repeating myself from one of these:
To: RightWhale
I wasn’t aware of the book “Rare Earth” but I had been thinking along the same lines since I sat down and played with the Drake’s Equation calculator. From a similar thread:
Posted by tlb to SideoutFred
On General/Chat 07/01/2007 3:17:43 AM PDT · 175 of 185
>>>10,000 communicative civilizations in the Milky Way
10,000 communicative civilizations, who never seem to communicate. Still as I said in my original post no answer is incorrect since we don’t know the true value of a single expression in the equation. Using Drake alone I also got multiple civilizations. But significant elements that Drake ignores include:
1) the already mentioned fact that most stars are in the central galactic core and much more tightly packed then the loose filament of stars in the arms where we reside relatively free of the killer effects of our neighbors. Consider alone just the gravitational effects of a near neighbor star would have on the outer rim of ice planetoids and asteroids, disrupting their orbit and sending many into the inner solar system.
2) the question of the proportion of iron in the planet’s core, sufficient or not to maintain a strong enough magnetic field to deflect the worst of the solar radiation
3) the presence or absence of a moon to deflect or absorb many incoming planet killer meteors and comets
4) the presence or absence of a moon large enough to provide tidal force
5) the stability of the sun. Less then a 1 % increase or decrease of the sun’s output gives us ice ages or a parched world.
Dr Drake is a true believer, and provided an excellent starting point to consider the question. That’s why I recommend it to people, but it’s incomplete. I’ve illustrated several omissions and we could think of other factors not included in the equation, but you get the idea.
Bottom line I think the galaxy is teeming with life of sorts. Algae may well be the true representative of life in the Milky Way. But climbing up the evolutionary ladder from floating spore to electronic toolbuilder appears tough in a galaxy where the game seems so strongly stacked against success.
32 posted on 09/27/2007 1:42:28 AM PDT by tlb
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