Posted on 11/06/2008 5:27:44 AM PST by bmweezer
The GOP cannot look ahead to any attempts of taking over the White House for at least four years, but life and politics go on. In 2010, the entire House and 1/3 of the Senate will once again be in play. And, with the GOP in control of nothing in Washington come January, we have a very good shot of gaining seats in the U.S. Senate in 2010 for the first time in three elections. Unfortunately, such was the case in 2006 and 2008, the GOP heads into the election defending more seats than the Democrats (19 versus 15), so again, we could be starting at a disadvantage.
Here is our quick (and very early) take on 2010 Senate seats:
Democrats
Arkansas, Blanch Lincoln (safe DNC)
California, Barbara Boxer (safe DNC, unless Gov. Schwarzenegger would run and/or Boxer retires)
Colorado, Ken Salazar (safe DNC)
Connecticut, Chris Dodd (safe DNC, although rumors are swirling that Dodd may retire, which could open this up slightly)
Hawaii, Daniel Inouye (safe DNC, unless Inouye retires and GOP Gov. Lingle runs)
Illinois, To Be Announced (safe DNC). The president-elect's seat will be up this year for whoever replaces Obama.
Indiana, Evan Bayh (safe DNC, unless Bayh unexpectantly retires)
Maryland, Barbara Mikulski (safe DNC, unless Mikulski retires)
Nevada, Harry Reid (TOSSUP, the #1 target of the GOP is the majority leader. Remember it happened before (2002, Tom Dashle)
New York, Chuck Schumer (safe DNC, the #2 target of the GOP. Rudy, Rudy??)
North Dakota, Byron Dorgan (safe DNC)
Oregon, Ron Wyden (safe DNC)
Vermont, Patrick Leahy (safe DNC)
Washington, Patty Murray (safe DNC)
Wisconsin, Russ Feingold (safe DNC)
Republicans
Alabama, Richard Shelby (safe GOP)
Alaska, Lisa Murkowski (safe GOP, although the Murkowski name is still tainted here)
Florida, Mel Martinez (questionable, depending on the candidate the Dems put up)
Georgia, Johnny Isakson (safe GOP)
Idaho, Mike Crapo (safe GOP)
Iowa, Chuck Grassley (safe GOP)
Kansas, Sam Brownback (Brownback is retiring but this seat is still safe for the GOP)
Kentucky, Jim Bunning (potential toss-up since Bunning had a close race last time)
Louisiana, David Vitter (potential toss-up if the Dems can find a good candidate)
Missouri, Kit Bond (safe GOP as long as Bond runs again)
New Hampshire, Judd Gregg (safe GOP as long as Gregg runs again)
North Carolina, Richard Burr (after Elizabeth Dole's loss this week, who knows)
Ohio, George Voinovich (potential toss-up since Voinovich isn't well liked in GOP circles)
Oklahoma, Tom Corburn (safe GOP, but also one of the Dems #1 targets for sure)
Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter (toss-up since Specter is highly disliked in the GOP and rumors are swirling on which Dems might try to take the seat)
South Carolina, Jim DeMint (safe GOP)
South Dakota, John Thune (safe GOP)
Utah, Robert Bennett (safe GOP)
Our early read - help defeat Reid and Schumer and support Colburn and Burr (and all conservative GOP candidates)
Huckabee can run for the AR seat. If we can line up the candidates, we can do well in 2010. It would be very helpful if we could line up a good candidate to take out Schumer. If we could talk Rudy into doing it, that would be great. Pataki could try, but I don’t know if he’d win. Taking out Schumer should be a first priority and Rudy seems to be the man to do it. However, I don’t know if we can talk him into running for Senate instead of Governor.
Mitt Romney could also help, if he were to set up a residence in NV and run for Reid’s seat. Mitt is more in line (this week anyway) with the beliefs of much of the Mormon population in NV than Reid. That would damage Reid’s voter base considerably. I don’t know if Mitt would be willing to do that though.
The analysis on Wikipedia is actually better than this one.
How about running someone like Kelsey Grammar or Dennis Miller in CA?
Could Adam Putnam (Congress) run for Martinez’s seat. Mel is an idiot.
That would be good too, if they’d want to go for it. Miller in particular would be great. Wonder how many other SNL alumni will run for office...Dana Carvey for congress!
Arnold could do it though. He’s perfectly suited to be an annoying Senate RINO, which is fine with me, as long as he’s not in a leadership position. RINOs are a necessary evil and are fine, unless you have them running things.
I don’t understand why Byron Dorgan is safe. The North Dakota GOP should be working to put someone up against him. Anyone from ND have any insights into this?
They’re talking about primarying Martinez with one of the big guns: Jeb Bush or Charlie Crist.
I still say we should get Crist the heck out of the governorship while he’s still popular. I’d rather have Jeb, because he’s a touch more conservative.
Much of that began at a conservative summit organized by the National Review and the Heritage Foundation beginning on the day after the Clinton inauguration in 1993. I would strongly suggest that we do that.
If the American people have really bought into the spread the wealth philosophy, and we cannot educate them about its fallacy, our strategy should revolve around Galt’s Gulch. I suspect that this may be true, but, the next election may tell us a lot.
Let's also not pin our hopes on the Republican Party. After the stunning successes of Reagan, and of the Contract with America, the Republican Party has let it be known that they would rather lose than be conservative.
The Stockdale Paradox is that we have total faith that we will prevail, and that we do not fail to face the brutal realities. The optimists died in Auschwitz and the Hanoi Hilton, as did many realists. But it was realists who survived.
We have some brutal realities to face. But we can prevail. I would suggest that Free Republic take the lead and begin online and face to face meetings to organize the principles, priorities and strategies, and to see what new leaders emerge.
Governor Palin and Pat Toomey should be invited. “Compassionate Conservatives” should be ignored.
Plus, and I regret to say this since I supported the president (yep, he is still the president) in 2000 and 2004, but we need to assure that the GOP is once again the party of Reagan and not that of the Bushes.
“but we need to assure that the GOP is once again the party of Reagan and not that of the Bushes.”
Having observed the local party regulars over a long period of time, and having unsuccessfully run for local office, I’m not sure that the GOP ever was the “party of Reagan”. Most seem more interested in winning elections to get patronage jobs and money, as well as the ego trip of being close to the the centers of power, as illusory as that might be. Principles are the furthest thing from their minds. They will support a Reagan or Gingrich, as long as they win and keep the pork and patronage flowing their way. They have no concept of the idea of liberty and free enterprise.
You think Jeb Bush could run for president or is the Bush name forever tainted? Sounds like his record in FL was more like Reagan than GWB. If not the presidency he could run for the Senate against Nelson but based on Jeb’s past comments I think he is happy in private industry.
I shouldn’t look to the past but I always do, and wonder about so many things. Including, if Jeb had won in FL in 1994 and George had not run in TX, would we have been better off with Jeb as president? He probably would have run, and could have won, in 2000.
This list is too cautious. I think if 0bama has ratings under 50% in 2010 the GOP should go full force on beating incumbents in “red” states. Dorgan should be at the top of the list. I think they can get Lincoln in AR, since that state went for McCain with 59%! Bayh shouldn’t even be safe in IN. McCain might have blown it there but Gov Daniels was reelected so it is hardly a Demo bastion. If 0bama screws up badly enough I think they should target Salazar in CO too.
Is McCain going to run—again?? If he retires I hope they hold that seat though the trends are not good in AZ. McCain only won it with 54%.
Then it's time to adopt a new business model. There's a two year period to define who we are and get active along that theme. Proceed to take names, check off the RINOs and recruit candidates who give a damn.
I do not believe that a majority out there is sympathetic with the collectivist idea. Those who promote that idea however, are well funded and super organized. Their ability to 'push' an electorate was demonstrated well this cycle. The dem/obama movement is obviously motivated from the top. I think that our only salvation is to do the inverse, to get the people and groups who we have alienated back to the table at the local level and hammer out strong common principles. Coalition beats atomization any day
We can prevail only if we begin now. A major problem with an activist government, like the clique just elected, is that they use our authority and our money to organize their movement wherever and however they want.(re.ACORN, City Year, the promised obama corps, etc) We must get moving before this stuff gains public legitimacy.
I think we have a lot less than two years. As soon as next year’s off year municipal elections are over, the campaign for 2010 is on. We need to start now to be prepared.
You’re absolutely right. I should have said ‘On the track running in two years’. The local offices and initiatives are at least as important, so yes, now is the time.
You’ve made several valid points, the biggest being establishing what it is WE will stand for, and fight for.
The Party has to get its’ backbone again and stand for the right principles, regardless of what the media perception
or acceptance. I will research your ‘named’ strategies.
saltnlemons
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