Posted on 11/06/2008 5:04:42 AM PST by topher
000
WTNT42 KNHC 060858
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008400 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
46 KT ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1000 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY ISSHOWING INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVELWINDS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH
35-KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACEWINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.
UP TO 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATIONINDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. THE HWRF FORECASTS APEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
FORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR. THEINTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL. AFTER 72 HR...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTERSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
SHEAR APART VERTICALLY. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FORSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6. PALOMA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF AMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS
LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT REACHES 18N IN ABOUT 48 HR. THIS FLOW SHOULDCAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGESTTWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS. FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMDFORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. ON THE OTHERHAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...
WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NOGAPSSHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...SHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS. SINCE THE INTENSITYFORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...
THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
IF THE CURRENT MOTION AND STRUCTURE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IF THESTORM MAKES A LEFT TURN OR GROWS IN SIZE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.1N 82.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 15.8N 82.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 16.6N 82.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 17.5N 83.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.5N 82.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 81.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 65 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Note that President-Elect Barack Obama's cousin named his son Fidel Castro Odinga
What a great honor for the Obama family -- [/sarcasm off]
That would make it a hurricane after the end of Hurricane Season...
This is clearly Bush’s fault.
Handover for the blame is on 20 Jan 09.
“... INTO THE ATLANTIC.”
Amateurs. Rove knew how to throw a real party.
On a more serious note, I will be praying for people affected by the storm.
It may not intensify much or be much of anything...
Clearly Bush’s fault, you forgot, clearly white America’s fault too, like Huricane Katrina....
That was exactly my first thought. One silver lining to the disaster last Tuesday is that we won’t have to listen ***as much*** to the “Blame everything on Bush” crowd anymore.
Time change confused it.
I should be careful with phrases. This forms the initials:
P.E.S.S.
(Fairly close to p!ss)
Oh, I don't know about that...
Hurricane? It's because of the environmental mess left for Obama by Bush...
Economy? In tatters due to years of mismanagement by Bush... Obama will save us...
Terrorist Attack? They hate us because Bush...
Teddy Bear infected with head lice? If Bush had only...
“This is clearly Bush’s fault.”
It’s Obama/Biden’s fault. What is he going to do about the weather? Obama doesn’t care about Black, White and Hispanic people hit by Hurricane Paloma!
Perhaps a new entitlement program would solve the problem. Say, one that would pay for your mortgage and gas?
It is because of Global Cooling.
(we're still cleaning up after Ike!)
Head lice? LOL! Yes, you’re probably right. You can bet that I’ll be a charter member of the Blame Obama club. Heck I might even become president of the club.
... might want to update your homepage...
Yes, you’re right, thank you! It has been almost 8 years since I last visited my profile page. My girls have sure grown up since then... my how time flies.
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