Posted on 11/05/2008 9:55:06 PM PST by Para-Ord.45
On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)** 1. Pew (10/29-11/1)** 2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1) 3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27) 4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)* 5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)* 5. ARG (10/25-27)* 6. CNN (10/30-11/1) 6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1) 7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3) 8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27) 9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2) 10. FOX (11/1-2) 11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27) 12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3) 13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2) 14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2) 15. Marist College (11/3) 16. CBS (10/31-11/2) 17. Gallup (10/31-11/2) 18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3) 19. CBS/Times (10/25-29) 20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
My point is that deluding yourself is a pointless process. A lot of people took a “see no evil, hear no evil” position. Whats the point? Know where you stand and keep fighting regardless. Being down doesn’t mean the race is over. It means you are down. No point in pretending that things are any different.
“I hope no one listens to Zogby/Newsweek/CBS again after this election.”
He should be out of business.
I can still remember at the end of September when the markets tanked and the bank crisis took off and watching Sean, Newt, Rassmussen, and Rove on H&C and seeing the dismay in their faces as we watched Mac’s post convention-Palin nomination lead fall of the cliff
Sean, Rove and Newt looked like someone had taken their toys and Rass looked dumbfounded
I knew then that things must be not so great and that sense I got everyday after that watching GOP pundits talk gave me the same bad feeling....they tried to rally everybody but even with Rush you could hear it in his voice.
Course, round here I was pilloried for even mentioning that GOP folks at ground zero of all this data looked worried.
But you know what? I still continued to give big bucks to National GOP Trust even though I was pessimistic....I felt i had to try.
Next time around these dreamers will have little credibility here but they will still try and shout everyone down..
It’s scary how the polls are, I wish they didn’t have the damned things.
Newsweek - no surprise.
Zogby - the guy is a joke.
Gallup - no longer a mainstream poll.
Well you know what, keeping your chin up and dreaming is part of the process. Can you imagine if McCain and Palin had just decided “oh what the heck, we’ll never catch these guys” and then just went through the motions in the final two weeks rather than campaign hard? The route would have been uglier, and pulled us down in scores of congressional races.
I must confess that I was sucked into that party ID thing. There just was no historical precedent for such a severe party ID drop off so quickly. The GOP has basically fallen back to 1970’s level party ID numbers from parity in just a few years. Wow.
I’m sorry Chet. You just posted the polls. I don’t include you in the bullybunch
Some here went way beyond just chin up into outright boorishness and defiance of continuous objective proof put right under their very noses that refuted their zany claims
like I’ve said before, continuing to struggle and even to give big bucks is a sign of more character than just shouting down everyone and slinging false accusation right and left and wishing a fantasy come true
I can and will prove to the dozen or so folks here who know me personally how I continued to participate in this election all of October while even though very concerned and somewhat less than optimistic after the late September polls crashed, I ask any of the bullies to pony up with proof of what they did besides bully
it was perfectly reasonable here during the month of September to say we were in trouble and needed to gin up turnout and donations for campaign ads and yes to speculate that maybe the polls weren’t off as much as some here insisted...and to challenge cherry picked polls
lots of otherwise decent looking newbies who might well have been potential freepers took the the hills after getting smacked around here
myself, I’ve been here a long time....survived a one year banning over amnesty...I’m used to it
but i ain’t fergetting
there is nothing gained when FR become a shout down echo chamber
I mean, damn man...the battleground Red state fights were proof enough we were fighting uphill
anyhow, now we get to fight for control of the GOP...a fight far more bloody to be sure than the election squabbles we had here
and about damned time too ain’t it?
we are either gonna be conservative or be the new Whigs.
I also donated up until the end.
I agree that there was just some plain craziness on here toward the end, with supposed “internal poll” leaks showing the race tied in California.
I kind of knew the whole internal poll thing was something of a smoke screen anyway when McCain’s pollster said their internals showed the races in battlegrounds to be a “functional tie”, which he later defined to be within the margin of error.
As for the direction of the party, wow.. what might that be? No one can seem to agree on that, what with social cons, fiscal cons, neocons, Green Granola Cons... a big tent at each other’s throat. The various contradictions held together during the 80’s, united in response to the soviet threat, in the 90’s united in response to Clintonism, and 2000s in response to the War on Terror/Iraq. Now, there is nothing to unify the various factions. And some factions just want to run the others out of the party entirely. The Dems seem to do better as a party of contradictions and competing interests.
I confess to believing that if we averaged within 2-4 points final poll that we would win possibly.
I also never believed that conservative thing on the internals
and I thought Jews would go higher
and that there were PUMAs
and that Mac would carry Catholics
and that GOP would at least match 2004 turnout
but after Monday polls I was down....way down and told my dear wife who was pretty depsondent as well as other family members that I suspected what I had feared since late September was now going to happen
the eventual tightening just never really materialized, it feinted was all
man..watching polls 24-7 in this day and age ain’t fer sissies is it?
you’re right...we don’t even really have any big leaders except some older Senators, a few governors and some folks who talk to Fox News
there is no face aside from Palin now whom Im adore but can she recover?
Palin is great, but her brand has been tarnished. I also see that many conservatives in academia, professionals, etc., want one of their own, who speak their language. I see Bobby Jindal as a man who could pass that test while still being acceptable to the “base.”
He may be “the one”.
But if we remain the party of old farts, we’ll be in trouble. These things go in cycles... it wasnt so long ago that the GOP were the young upstarts and the Democrats were the crusted old guard (remember Dan Rostenkowski?).
I was another one who didn’t believe the polls. I was absolutely fanatical about reading the “the polls are wrong and heres why” threads. I just wanted to believe so bad.
I didn’t believe the polls this time, mostly because a lot of you FReepers told me not to, but certain talk show hosts also downplayed them.
I was dreamin’. I’ll believe them next time.
Dear Para-Ord.45, you forgot President Bush’s failures and low rating. McCain, the new Goldwater, could have never won. He lost, but he fought as an hero.
What’s this? A cluster of MSM polls at the bottom of the list? And granddaddy Gallup? LOL!
that is fine but some here basically called anyone who questioned that as Sons of Satan and trolls etc
bmflr
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