Hi LS,
It’s been almost a decade I’ve known you through FR, and seeing you are so certain you’re putting this out this early, I’m taking your word for it and am getting excited about it right now.
Also, everyone could check out LS’s new book, 48 Liberal Lies About American History: (That You Probably Learned in School), I gave it to two younger cousins just entering freshman year of undergrad, I hope it gives them a better perspective on their uni educations.
For some perspective for Freepers who don’t know much about Ohio’s county by County breakdown:
... from Politico (grain of salt): http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=68D87089-18FE-70B2-A8BE915FD3A08E5B
25 key counties to watch tonight
By CHARLES MAHTESIAN | 11/4/08 2:24 PM EST
9) Franklin County, Ohio: Ohio’s second-largest population hub after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Columbus’ Franklin County is trending increasingly Democratic. Since Cincinnati’s Hamilton County is no longer a reliable Republican bulwark, a big Obama win here would go a long way toward sinking McCain’s chances in the state.
10) Butler County, Ohio: Cincinnati’s suburban Butler County was a key part of the exurban and micropolitan firewall that enabled Bush to carry Ohio in 2004. The 54,000-vote margin it delivered to Bush was his largest in any county in the state.
11) Mahoning County, Ohio: As a vote source, Youngstown’s Mahoning County pales next to Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Dayton’s Montgomery County, Akron’s Summit County or Toledo’s Lucas County. But the results here will be revealing because if Obama is running below 60 percent in this industrial area, that’s a bad sign for him — and it probably signals he’s struggling in western Pennsylvania, too.
Mahoning County - you are so right. This is the area of Jim Traficant fame. I lived in the area when Jim Tressel was winning championships with the YSU Penguins. Very high dem influence traditionally and notorious for corruption.
9) Franklin County, Ohio: Ohio’s second-largest population hub after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Columbus’ Franklin County is trending increasingly Democratic. Since Cincinnati’s Hamilton County is no longer a reliable Republican bulwark, a big Obama win here would go a long way toward sinking McCain’s chances in the state.
10) Butler County, Ohio: Cincinnati’s suburban Butler County was a key part of the exurban and micropolitan firewall that enabled Bush to carry Ohio in 2004. The 54,000-vote margin it delivered to Bush was his largest in any county in the state.
11) Mahoning County, Ohio: As a vote source, Youngstown’s Mahoning County pales next to Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Dayton’s Montgomery County, Akron’s Summit County or Toledo’s Lucas County. But the results here will be revealing because if Obama is running below 60 percent in this industrial area, that’s a bad sign for him — and it probably signals he’s struggling in western Pennsylvania, too
What few if any of the pundits see is something that is very apparent if one bothers to go to rural Ohio counties. Not only are the Republicans in those counties motivated to vote for McCain. Tons of white working class Democrats are voting for McCain too. I have never in my lifetime heard of more life long white working class democrats saying they are voting for a Republican. It is not that they are for McCain.. It is they will do anything including (GASP) vote for a Republican to keep Obama from being elected.
Take Franklin county. Kerry won it in 2004. But Bush's margin in 5 northwestern Ohio counties wiped that margin out.
There are 88 Ohio counties. And perhaps 16 or 17 of them can be considered Democrat counties. But that leaves 70 or so that are Republican counties. They are smaller, but there are over 3 times as many of them.
Take the Bellwether Town of Ohio, Chillicothe. That is my home town. The breakdown of Blacks, whites. wealthy to middle class to poor. By every category of voters Chillicothe is an image of the entire state. There is a factor that you reduce the Republican vote and increase the Democratic vote in Chillicothe and you have the Ohio returns within a fraction of a percent.
It went for Bush in 2004. Kerry got 44 percent of the Ross County vote. But Obama will not come close to 44 percent this year. Why? white working class Democrats are voting for McCain. The more the media painted Obama as a sure winner the more the white working class Democrats in Ross County have held their noses and voted for McCain.
Last week I talked to a cousin. He is active in the Democratic Party, and he had been supervising the precinct workers who were canvasing Registered Democrats in Ross County. For the first time in his memory, and he is 63 years old, over 20 percent of Registered Democrats were telling canvassers they were going to either not vote or were going to vote for McCain.
Oh and as to my Democratic Cousin? I asked him if he voted for Obama. His reply was "NO F**KING Way!!!" I don't think he or his people were working to get out the vote for Obama today.
The local party decided to ask all of them to vote. Even the Democrats who were going to vote for McCain but to plead with them to vote for all the rest of the Democrats on the ticket. They were concerned about losing state and federal congressional races if enough Democrats did not vote at all.
This is not in the news. It has not been a big story, but Hillary won the Democratic primary in Ross county by about 4 to 1. Obama barely got more than the Black vote. That was White Working Class Democrats sending a message to the party. DON'T nominate Obama. No one listened.
There may be a lot of Democrat leaders listening after the votes are counted.
Can a huge Black and leftist turn out in big cities overcome the Republicans and their White Working Class allies.
We shall soon know. But don't bet the farm on it.