Whatever McCain's internals, allocating 4% to BHO and 1.9% to JSM assumes a 2:1 reverse Bradley effect. Color me skeptical. Also skeptical about Barr and Nader winning 4.1%. Try about 0.4% each.
I'd look at the 47.5% BHO polls and remember what Rove and Morris said about him polling under 50%, which he is.
“skeptical about Barr and Nader winning 4.1%. Try about 0.4% each.”
I seriously doubt they were giving 4.1% to Nader/Barr. The “other” is a combination of 3rd party voters and also people who are simply not going to make a choice either way and thus won’t show up to vote.