Posted on 11/03/2008 5:34:17 PM PST by tatown
Interesting! But what the heck does he mean by CLOSE-BUT NO CIGAR forecast for McCain? HUH? Interesting read in as much that the pollsters after this election are SOOOOOOOOOOO screwed with the public!!!
How come the polls were so off in the democrat primaries ?
OK. This is it. Obi-Wan is hereby grounded with no TV till the election is over.
I am tired of this 6 year old boy dressed up in his Star Wars costume waving his Light Saber posting these inane posts.
Just about ANY Freeper can and DOES post more coherent articles than the one supposedly inspired by the Master Jedi.
What a crock pot! Won’t give a prediction!
..only ONE of several reasons why McCain will prevail...
Dem turnout only matters in states where the results aren’t a foregone conclusion. Every single Democrat could turn out to vote in NY and California, and the Zero would get the same number of electoral votes. This is, no doubt, why the libs want the electoral college abolished: it blunts the effect of already-dem pockets like the big cities.
On the other hand, Repub turnout in the more rural states, and particularly in Ohio and PA, will be a critical aspect of this election.
Yeah, and if I remember correctly in ‘06 “Obi-Wan” said don’t worry about the polls... Republicans will keep the house and Senate.
The polls were correct.
Obi Wan is actully giving me some hope tonight.
Suppose your a pollster for, say, Ohio. You look at the registration numbers to set your targets for polling and see that 200,000 more Democrats are registered than in 2004. You adjust the percent of Democrats upward accordingly to reflect this change in your polling population. You take your poll and find Obama with a 4% lead, release your results and head out to dinner.
But there's a problem. The 200,000 additional registered Democrats were signed up by ACORN and about 175,000 of them are fake -fake regestrants falsified by some ex-con who was getting paid $5 a signature.
Come election day, "Mr. Mickey Mouse," "Mr. Osama B. Ladin" et. al. don't show up at the polls. Suddenly, that 4 point lead is a 4 point deficit.
In other words, what if the Left is right. What if there has been massive voter registration fraud, but that's all there is. Obama may have just spent the last days of the campaign wasting time in places that weren't that important(Arizona, for example) when he should have been in states where his lead didn't really exist.
And all because he was misled by registration drives conducted by his own people.
It would be one heck of an irony.
I’m beginning to believe there is an racial angle to this years polling that no one is saying out loud! Most of the pollsters are assuming that there will be WAY more blacks democrats voting because there’s a black democrat in the race. But black folk have been dragged out to vote heavily democrat in every election in recent memory. It’s quite possible that there aren’t many more available black democrat voters than in elections past. This false assumption (of HYPER-INCREASED black turnout) may be one factor in the polls’ over-sampling of dems overall.
Jim was saying he personally is calling for a close loss by Mc. His big thing is he thinks VA will go O.
Obi was NOT saying that, Jim was. The rest of the stuff below that quote you mentioned was Obi’s statement.
Not sure, but some certainly were and were wrong and the polls were right.
We will see who is right this time.
That isn’t true.
Don’t know what Obi said in 2006, but I know the Senate was *barely* lost. The Montana and VA barely lost their seats by less than 1%. If either had won, we would have had a majority in the Senate, right?
“By which I mean the decision they made to stake out — as Campaign Spot has noted — a remarkably bold position, that the Democratic Party turnout is not only going to exceed a recent historic advantage of 4 percent but go to 6.5 percent (Rasmussen) to 8 percent in many polls to even 12 percent in one.”
Those turnout assumptions are wrong. I am convinced that is the source of the bias and discrepancy.
WE WONT KNOW UNTIL WE SEE WHO SHOWS UP AND VOTES but I’ve seen enough evidence that the young voters are not showing up and that GOP energy has been building to match / exceed Dem energy.
Now saying we win, but I am saying those assumptions of big Dem advantage are shaky at best.
“If either had won, we would have had a majority in the Senate, right?”
You are correct, MO was close as well.
A 10,000 vote shift and we would have retained the Senate.
I keep meeting and talking with Democrat after Democrat who is NOT voting for Obama.
These Democrats have already voted for McCain or intend to, even though they loathe Republicans. It is because they admire and trust McCain and the qualities he possesses.
Why? Because Obama is a liar, a cheat, believes our Constitution is flawed, and dislikes everything about the United States.
Just because there are more Democrats than Republicans voting, doesn’t mean they are all voting for Obama.
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