IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Twenty-Two. Obama 47.5%, McCain 43.0%, Undecided 9.5%

Investor's Business Daily ^ | 2008-11-03 | IBD/TIPP

[Falconspeed]

Thanks for the chart.

Looks like the numbers remain the same after three weeks. 0bama below 50% is a very good sign for the brave McCain.

[Repeal 16-17]

Plus 9.5% undecided a day before the election? Odd...

If the "undecided" break for McCain, he wins. The odds are the "undecided" consist of people are either not going to vote or are going to vote for McCain. This poll is actually good for McCain.

[srmorton]

You have hit the nail on the head. In my state of NC, many of the Dems are conservative and they DO NOT vote for liberal Democrat Presidential candidates. The Obama guy on FNS last night was so elated that the Democrat turnout in the early voting was so good in NC, but, if I had a million dollars, I would bet him that many of those registered Democrats voted for McCain. Your point that Obama is only winning 77% of Dems is a pretty good indication that the rule in NC will prove true once again.

[kesg]

“Three day average

Obama 47.36
McCain 43.66
Undecd 8.96
MOE: 3.10
Mar: 3.70”

Those undecideds are going to break for McCain. Watch and learn, people, watch and learn. Either that or I might have to go into the witness protection program after tomorrow night. :)

[kesg]

“TIPP’s last poll at midnight is not new data.

“They will be using this last set of data, and allocating the undecided votes according to a formula they have not published in the past.”

In that case, I may reconsider. Well, I might have a comment or two on how they do allocate those undecideds. When they do it, I hope to have my handy 2004 exit poll data to critique how they do it.

[rwfromkansas]

Good point. Of the “polls” of early voters in Ohio, as far as I know they don’t show that 15-20 point lead. The only one that does is Quinnipiac, which is way lefty, and it can only muster a 20 point margin.

I forgot about absentees, and they do heavily go GOP, so that is very good news.

[diamond6]

Let’s forget about the popular vote for a moment and take a look at the state by state chances.

After an analysis of the big map from Rove.com and Real Clear Politics.com, my take is this:

Assuming that Mac wins every poll that shows a -5% or better, based upon the slanted liberal biased numbers, I come up with 245 EVs for McCain. That’s counting Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and Georgia in the win column, which were all red states in 2004.

That leaves Nevada (5), Colorado(9), Minnesota (10), Virginia (15), and Pennsylvania (21) with realistic hope of getting the remaining 25 EVs.

RCP has Virginia as a “toss up”, despite showing Zero with a 7 point lead. So, I think Virginia is a good possibility.

That leave 8 more. He can get it by picking off either Colorado, Minnnesota, or Pennsylvania. A poll just came out in Minnesota yesterday that showed McCain 3 points down, despite all other polls showing a double digit lead for Obama.

If McCain gets BOTH Pennsylvania and Virginia, I think there’s an excellent chance he wins the election, and we should have a good idea of that early on the election. If he doesn’t win either, it could be a bad night.

He probably needs to win at least one of PA or VA to have a realistic shot to win and then a combination out of the remaining states I have listed above to get the remaining 23 EVs. I’m hoping Archbishop Chaput’s pro-life pronouncements will sway Colorado Catholics in big numbers to McCain, just in case Colorado is needed.

My prediction is McCain with 295 EVs, by picking off PA, VA, CO, and NV, and the less than stellar Messiah 243.

[diamond6]

And in case your wondering, here are just released results from the admittedly flawed Rasmussen Report:

Colorado

Obama 51

McCain 47

Florida

McCain 50

Obama 49

Missouri

Obama 49

McCain 49

N. Carolina

McCain 50

Obama 49

Ohio

Obama 49

McCain 49

Virginia

Obama 51

McCain 47

The poll has a plus or minus margin of error of 3 percent.

Looks pretty great to me!

[SuperSonic]

An Associated Press-GfK poll released this past week showed that 14 percent of Democrats in the state plan to back Republican presidential candidate John McCain, while only 4 percent of registered Republicans planned to back Obama.

Source: Forty Percent Of North Carolina Voters Have Already Cast Ballot

[dotnetfellow]

Comparing this IBD poll during this period of this election cycle, with previous IBD polls during this period for previous election cycles ... does 9.5% undecided compare as common, high, exhorbitantly high?

[justlurking]

undecideds were 8.8% at this point in 2004.

[Senator Goldwater]

LOVE that undecided number.

---

Exactly. Those aren’t going to Obama, and the number is actually higher than yesterday, which I believe IBD had at 8.7%.

McCain’s got Obama right where he wants him, He’s tied or up in FLA, MO and OH, striking distance in PA and VA.

If the Keystoners go red, its his night.

[libertyforeveryone]

One point to note is that Obama is pointing out the higher number of Democrats compared to Republican voting is some states such as Florida. However, a Fox poll of early voters states that Obama only has a one point lead in Florida. This means that a significant number of Dems are voting for McCain. This is especially good news in not just Florida but Colorado where the Dems to Republicans are much closer.

[libertyforeveryone]

There’s also another possibility. Maryland gives its 10 electoral votes to the populur vote winner. If McCain holds all the up for grabs and loses Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, & Iowa its Obama 278. However, if he peels off Maryland due to eaking out the popular vote its McCain 270 to Obama 268. Although winning the popular vote may seem unlikely, I think McCain may lose by less than expected in California due to Prop 8 pulling in a few more conservative voters that typically stay home.

[impeachedrapist]

To answer your question, my prediction from two weeks ago is here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2111725/posts?page=138#138

[Kevmo]

bmflr

[EdnaMode]

Tammy Bruce said anyone who is voting for Obama has decided already. If true, McCain wins:)

[EdnaMode]

People are also forgetting the people who refuse to be polled at all. Wouldn’t it make more sense for an Obama supporter to want to be polled than a McCain supporter?

[kingattax]

thanks

[justlurking]

IBD/TIPP's final projections will be released at midnight, Tuesday (not Monday as they say -- they forget that midnight is attributed to the day that follows).

However, at least the editorial dept. appears to be in Los Angeles, on Pacific Time. So, I don't expect the numbers to be posted until 3:00 AM, Eastern Time. This would be consistent with their history of posting the daily results at noon, Pacific Time, each day.

I'm not staying up that late to get the final projections. I'll post them when I get up tomorrow AM, if someone hasn't already done so.