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The McCain List.

Here are the final Rasmussen battlegrounds. McCain is slightly ahead or tied in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri. And he is down 4% in Virginia and Colorado.

First, let's assume undecideds break strongly for McCain which, given Obama's overexposure, is a reasonable assumption. According to an analysis I worked out last night, these are the core states and McCain really has to win all of them: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. We have an excellent chance of winning them all, and this new Rasmussen data (along with Mason-Dixon) gives credence to this.

Next, McCain needs to win at least one of these two: Virginia and Pennsylvania. Rasmussen has us down 4% in both and Mason-Dixon has us down 3% in VA and 4% in PA. In M-D, Obama is polling under 50% which is a good sign. If McCain is able to grab undecideds and there is an element of the Bradley Effect at play, McCain has an excellent chance with taking at least one of these two states. If McCain takes both he wins the Presidency right there. If he takes one he moves on to the final round.

Depending on whether McCain takes Virginia or Pennsylvania, he then needs to take 1-3 of this last tier of states: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. If McCain takes only Pennsylvania (but not Virginia), any one of those 5 states will put him over the top. If McCain captures only Virginia (but not Pennsylvania), he needs to capture 2-3 of this third tier of states - any combination that will get him 10 or more EVs will capture McCain the Presidency. In other words, Colorado and any other state (IA, NV, NM, NH), or Iowa and any other state, or Nevada and New Mexico combined.

Obviously, grabbing PA would allow McCain the option of trading off one of the core states (OH, FL, MO, NC, IN). But I just don't see McCain winning PA without the core states.

This is my best and most reasonable analysis that I can offer. I think our chances for victory tomorrow are very good - much better than the pundits are giving us! Keep up your spirits and VOTE!!

LET'S WIN THIS!!

THIS IS THE LINK WHERE THE MSM will get the data for the early and absentee ballot data.

THIS IS THE LINK TO THE FL STATE ELECTIONS PAGE.
https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/fvrscountyballotreports/fvrsefilings.aspx
The reporters are going to spin this.
THIS IS WHERE WE CAN TRUMP THE MSM.

THIS is the page with the actual numbers
https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/fvrscountyballotreports/FVRSAvailableFiles.aspx

unfortunatly I have to go mobile and can not create a new post or crunch numbers.
IF ANYONE WANTS TO DO IT THEN PLEASE FEEL FREE TO HELP RUN THE MSM DATA BLOCKADE.

from the website” *According to the county early voting reports, 2,610,308 Floridians have voted early in Florida as of 5:00 a.m.Monday, November 3, 2008.”

Norman,

Before the Election, I just want you to know that I am proud to be a fellow FReeper of yours.

May God Bless You and May God Bless The United States of America.

Regards,

Momaw Nadon