This particular analysis was pretty accurate from a statistical point of view in 2004. However, if you want to see how accurate it is, go look at the swing Bush got around 5PM or so on Election Day 2004. I think it had Bush in the lead in the AM, a 90/10 swing to Kerry around 2PM, and back to Bush at 7PM or so.
Just don’t go getting all wobbly....we’re not dead by any stretch of the imagination. FWIW, I was a nervous wreck in 2004, kind of right about 2006 (I knew the house was gone, but the Senate shocked me somewhat). This year just seems different...the numbers being thrown around are silly and it is almost like they need to make this race tight on purpose. If they are right, we’re doomed (this year), but all of this reeks of manufactured support for Obama.
Either Obama is gonna win big or this is truly a historic miscalculation by Intrade. In ‘04 the big upswing for Kerry in the afternoon came when a bunch of phony exit polls were released.
I don’t think these numbers are manufactured, but this is a unique situation. A lot of the bettors are Europeans and they are convinced Obama is a lock. He is just like them. I think a lot of others are betting with their hearts as well. They could be very wrong this time around.