An anecdotal example of why these early voting Dem to Republican counts should not be that worrisome:
In 2004, Jacksonville as a whole voted for Bush over Kerry 58 to 42%. But I researched this very interesting statistic — in 2004, Kerry slaughtered Bush in Jacksonville in early voting, 57% to 43%. (This figure does not appear to include absentee ballots, which were likely favorable to Bush) So, a Kerry early vote lead of 14% turned into an overall loss of 16% or a 30% swing all in all.
As of Saturday, Obama led McCain in early voting (I am excluding absentee votes so we are comparing apples to apples) by a 52 to 30% margin. If McCain supporters state-wide are like Bush supporters were in Jacksonville in 2004, they are not early voters. They are election day voters and, to a lesser extent, absentee voters. If Jacksonville voters turned a significant early voting deficit into a significant election day win, it seems reasonable to conclude that McCain voters can do the same.
But the article says that FL early voting shows Mac with a four-point lead.