this poll has to be off
it’s too far off from most of the respectable polls
some polls in 1948 had Truman down 15 points final poll
wonder how the polling technology has changed?
“some polls in 1948 had Truman down 15 points final poll
wonder how the polling technology has changed?”
In 1948 there were far fewer polling companies than there are today, and polling stopped weeks before the election. The only poll that had a “final” poll relatively close to election day was Gallup, which showed Dewey beating Truman by 5%. That poll was wrapped up one full week before election day. During that last week of campaigning Truman embarked on a widely publicized populist barnstorming whistle-stop tour around the country during which he blasted the “do nothing” Congress. It resonated, resulting in a late surge towards Truman, which could not be captured by any polls, as the “final” poll had already been handed out a week prior.
The other caveat is that in those days polls were conducted strictly by telephone (as is the case today,) and in those days the only people who actually owned telephones were relatively wealthy, and therefore more likely to back Dewey. In fact, reportedly one of the “errant” polling firms, the Litery Digest, used DMV records to gather phone numbers, making automobile ownership as well as owning a telephone a prerequisite to even be included in their poll, which, again, in those days led to a severe bias towards Dewey, as his supporters were much more likely to own both.