I don’t know the registration numbers in CO, however registered Dems outnumber Rs in a number of southern states, yet the GOP takes those states easily in presidential elections.
That’s the status quo nationwide. Dems outnumber Pubbies. So when you find the reverse, it’s generally significant.
The reg numbers in CO are even by Party ID. But 300K of the Dems just signed up this year. Less than 50% of these voters will show up. So really, the R’s have about a 150K natural party ID advantage.
And yes, I sat here for 3 hours on Friday night scouring voter registration stats for the past three years in CO to figure this out.