With regards to adjustments to party affiliation, here you go...
Current poll results:
Obama - 49%
McCain - 42%
Undecided - 9%
Party affiliation in current poll:
Democrat - 38%
Independent - 28%
Republican - 28%
Previous poll results:
Obama - 53%
McCain - 39%
Undecided - 8%
Party affiliation in previous poll:
Democrat - 40%
Independent - 30%
Republican - 25%
So, the gap in party affiliation changed from +15 for the Democrats to +10 for the Democrats.
However, that change of -5 actually led to a -7 drop for Obama’s overall lead (14 points to 7 points)! So, based on this, Obama must have actually lost support beyond what can just be attributed to the change in gap in party affiliation.
In other words... If they dropped their gap in party affiliation to +5 for the Democrats, would their poll show a TIED result? If so, that’s not good news for Obama - especially since +5 may still be unrealistic!
-Bob
Where do you come up with Dem +10 in the latest poll? It looked like 39 to 34 from what I could tell.