[rwfromkansas]

Interesting the poll says mcCain leads by 1 for those planning to vote on election day, but Obama leads by quite a big for those who already have voted.

Could be some good news for us with this strong bias in the poll.

However, I hope this is wrong:

“Significantly, Obama matches McCain or holds a narrow advantage among key swing voter groups that have voted Republican, or been evenly divided, in recent presidential elections. Aside from Obama’s six-point edge among independents (45%-39%), he is nearly even with McCain among white non-Hispanic Catholics (47% McCain, 45% Obama), suburban voters (47%-43%), and white women (47%-44%). For detailed demographic tables see complete report PDF.

Notably, a much greater share of Obama supporters continue to say they are supporting him strongly, compared with McCain supporters. Among likely voters, 36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately. In most recent elections where there has been an imbalance in intensity of support, the candidate with the greater share of strong support has gone on to victory. “

The enthusiasm gap is a major problem if it truly is this big.

[word_warrior_bob]

Simply reverse those numbers and you will be pretty close to the final numbers on election day.

[Chet 99]

You’re reading too much into a poll that had 0bama up 15 points just a few days ago. They’re a joke.

[IndianPrincessOK]

“The enthusiasm gap is a major problem if it truly is this big.”

There is no way they can gadge the enthusiasm going on in every middle America suburb, peace keeping, conservative, God loving citizen...no way. The enthusiasm is more than high it is off the charts...and what is driving it is this radical, too far liberal Obama. That is and will get the Evangelicals out of the house in numbers no one has ever seen. It's gonna happen and we will win.

[horse_doc]

Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately.

The piece that you are missing, is that these same people are incredibly motivated to vote for Sarah Palin.

[johncocktoasten]

The problem is that the if you ask 10% more democrats than republicans that question, you will definitely get that gap

[paudio]

36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately.

The pollsters knew that big part of conservatives will vote for McCain/Palin because of Sarah Palin, not because of McCain. So, when people were asked about their support to candidates, and only mentioned McCain or 0bama, those are the numbers we got. Technically, they're right as the two are the presidential candidates. However, practically, it's an incomplete descriptions of what really is going on.