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New Pew Poll: 052%, M46% [From 053%, M38% less than one week ago]
Pew ^

Posted on 11/02/2008 1:51:03 PM PST by Chet 99

November 2, 2008

Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; antichrist; conspiracy; electionpresident; mccain; obama; pew
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To: horse_doc

good point. also we have the fear of Obama going on that was pointed out in an article today. Some people in Virginia were quoted as being frightened of Obama, and they were listed as undecided.


41 posted on 11/02/2008 2:36:35 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Chet 99

“A 9% swing in less than a week”

And Bambi picked up a point to 53% as well.


42 posted on 11/02/2008 2:41:59 PM PST by DAC21
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To: rwfromkansas

The problem is that the if you ask 10% more democrats than republicans that question, you will definitely get that gap


43 posted on 11/02/2008 2:43:58 PM PST by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: DAC21

They had Obama up by 15.

You could have held this election on the best day Obama ever had and he would NEVER come close to winning by 15, you could try it a million times, it would never happen, pure propaganda.

The Obama-Titanic is sinking like a rock.


44 posted on 11/02/2008 2:44:12 PM PST by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: rwfromkansas
36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately.

The pollsters knew that big part of conservatives will vote for McCain/Palin because of Sarah Palin, not because of McCain. So, when people were asked about their support to candidates, and only mentioned McCain or 0bama, those are the numbers we got. Technically, they're right as the two are the presidential candidates. However, practically, it's an incomplete descriptions of what really is going on.

45 posted on 11/02/2008 2:44:58 PM PST by paudio (Nobody cried racism when Ken Blackwell, Lynn Swann, and Michael Steele lost to White guys...)
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To: paudio

I remember stumbling upon a lefty site yesterday saying they needed a desperately big number of volunteers because they were struggling to reach voters etc. That is pretty telling.


46 posted on 11/02/2008 2:51:24 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

The DUers have been complaining about a huge “flake rate” - people who promised to volunteer, but never showed up, no call, nothing. I heard (seriously) that several very popular video games were just released, so I guess all those dedicated Obama yut found something better to do with their time.


47 posted on 11/02/2008 2:54:46 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: Chet 99

If anyone is still reading this thread, the real news is that even in the Obama-biased Pew poll, OBAMA IS UNDER 50%.

Click the link and look at the chart. The actual results among those likely voters who have decided is:

Obama 49, McCain 42, Minor candidates 2, leaving 7% undecided.

Pew arrived at the 52 v. 46 figure by an arbitrary guess allocating 4 to McCain and 3 to Obama.

But the point is: If even this Obama-biased poll has Obama uder 50%, there’s real grounds for hope here.


48 posted on 11/02/2008 3:00:40 PM PST by BCrago66
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To: rwilliam

Where did you find this information for party ID? Thanks.


49 posted on 11/02/2008 3:06:39 PM PST by kesg
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To: Chet 99

I am a bit concerned about a reverse bradley effect, where obama overperformed bigtime in some states, like NC.

He whooped up on Clinton there when polls showed it much closer.

Then we have other states like we have (PA, OH) where it went our way. Obama lost support to Clinton much worse than the polls showed.

So, who knows.

But, in states like NC, that is worrisome. I just hope any potential ‘reverse’ will be outweighed by high voter turnout overall.


50 posted on 11/02/2008 3:11:17 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: kesg

Here’s the PDF:

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/468.pdf

It is hard to tell, since the party numbers are “unweighted”, but the other numbers are weighted...


51 posted on 11/02/2008 3:13:52 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: rwfromkansas

“I am a bit concerned about a reverse bradley effect, where obama overperformed bigtime in some states, like NC.”

That’s wasn’t Reverse Bradley. It was higher than expected black turnout effect.


52 posted on 11/02/2008 3:14:51 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: tatown

Where did you find the +10 dem party weighting? Thanks.


53 posted on 11/02/2008 3:16:12 PM PST by kesg
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To: kesg

See post #16


54 posted on 11/02/2008 3:22:14 PM PST by tatown
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To: rwfromkansas

And he was up big on Hillary in CA and NH.


55 posted on 11/02/2008 3:36:58 PM PST by Boiling Pots (Barack Obama is not your hip black friend)
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To: Boiling Pots

True.

I just want to make sure we don’t become an echo chamber. I am sure in 2004 there were a lot of the same things going on......statements that if we can just get tied we will win etc.

In sites like this, groupthink can take over.

that’s why it is important to look at things that could go the opposite of what people are thinking at your site.

Still, even with that, I think most of the signs point to a victory for us.


56 posted on 11/02/2008 3:58:19 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

What echo chamber? It seems like most around here are gloomy and believe the election will go as the MSM predicts.


57 posted on 11/02/2008 3:59:39 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: rwfromkansas

what I meant to say was in 2004, I am sure there were similar statements at DU.


58 posted on 11/02/2008 4:02:45 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Chet 99

i meant to say in 2004, I am sure there were similar statements on DU saying Kerry had good chances to win etc.

however, it is true there are some gloomy folks.


59 posted on 11/02/2008 4:04:09 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

Just going by polls, there was more reason for a Dem to be optimistic in 2004. Kerry did far better in state polls than his national numbers suggested, and most pundits predicted undecideds would break heavily for Kerry, since Bush was the incumbent. It did not turn out that way.


60 posted on 11/02/2008 4:05:58 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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