We need to keep in mind internal polling usually will be too positive for your candidate. Usually it will be wrong, and somewhere in between is the truth. However, I believe in this case, it will be closer to what the GOP is saying than the public polls...the public polls are really off I think.
that's not true... internal polling gives the candidate as true a picture of the state of the race as possible... they want to and NEED to know how things REALLY look... that way they know where to spend money, where to rally, where to GOTV...
My impression is that the actual internal polling has to be as accurate as possible, you don't want false information to mislead you.
My other impression is that spin about internal polls given to the press is leaked for a purpose. In this case to undermine the MSM's spin that this election is over, so that McCain supporters get out to the polls on Tuesday.
I have to call BS on that one. LS can tell you that they don’t fool around on internals, they want to know EXACTLY where they stand. They don’t need something to make them feel better. Internal polling is done by third parties without a dog in the fight to get the real sense of where the candidates stand.
Case in point, I am sure we’ll find out after the fact, that Obama’s camp realized about two weeks ago that they were losing their edge with women. That is why the 150K Palin wardrobe story was blasted on the news at the EXACT SAME TIME that Obama went to see “dying” grandma. It was an attempt to stem the tide with women. Likewise, the stage Halloween photo op with his kid the other night was the same deal. Inside the Obama camp, they know that they don’t have enough support to win.
Outside, they are keeping the facade, hoping that they can suppress turnout on the GOP side. But I guarantee you, they know they don’t have enough to win. And I believe the McCain camp knows they really do have enough to win if the base shows up. Sarah Palin “guaranteeing” victory in PA last week wasn’t a fluke.
..the public polls are really off I think.
They were off in 2000 and 2004.