Posted on 11/02/2008 12:30:36 PM PST by Retired Greyhound
On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign's conviction that the glass if half full. "Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black. (The campaign stopped doing its own polling after Thursday, he added, because television time through the election all had to be purchased by Friday.) However, public polls in Iowa suggest that McCain is still in a big hole. Last week, the Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record of prediction in that state, put McCain's deficit at 17 points, with Barack Obama garnering 54 percent of the support.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at swampland.blogs.time.com ...
I like your enthusiasm! I got so reved up, I couldn't wait 'til Nov 4 and I turned in my absentee ballot.
Here is my new sign of hope here in the liberal Virginia-D.C. suburbs:
I have two young black men in my high school age Sunday school class (here in Northern Virginia)—who were adopted by a white couple. These boys have been bigtime Bush bashers. But they were Hillary fans too. And maybe there is a factor here in the sense that their adoptive parents take in all sorts of kids of various backgrounds— including special needs kids.
Last month, the more talkative youth was all pumped up for the Sarah Palin rally down in Richmond (Columbus Day). Obviously, something had impacted them.
Today, the boys asked me who I was voting for. I balked because I try to keep partisanship out of my class. (And we have some pretty liberal folks in our church.) But I finally said, “well, I have problems with McCain... but I have a lot more problems with Obama. So I will be voting for McCain.”
The lads were ecstatic. Young Nick was excited about being close enough to touch Sen. McCain at a recent rally and worked the phone banks for 5 hours yesterday.
Something is going on here in Virginia that the MSM has completely and almost predictably has missed.
I would guess the Philly suburbs has a lot of Catholics including Italian-Americans (IA). Obama is not getting many or even any IA votes.
The problem with these polls is they ask on one of the questions is do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush. That in its self will skew the data toward the Democrats! I believe that John McCain and Sarah Palin will win this election. I live in a Blue state and there is something weird going on. When I drive around there is hardly any Obama bumper stickers on cars. I drive through the parking lots and there isn’t any. Once in a while I see one Obama but I see McCain/Palin just as often!
"Congratulations, President . . . McCain" (Congratulations, President McCain
That is NOT the ACORN spirit!
Often internal polls show completely opposite things, at least I recall them doing so in the past. IE......2004 kerry’s polls had him winning. Bush’s had him winning.
internal polls just show what the candidate wants to hear to a degree.
However, I do think like in 2004, the republican polls will be closer to reality this year, so we can win this.
In the last two weeks, I believe several powerful trends have come together, and at just the right time for McCain and Palin. Independent voters have begun to look anew at Barack Obama, and many have decided that they do not like what they see, even if they once strongly desired to see something else.
Democrat voters include a significant number of new voters whom the polls assume will vote overwhelmingly for Obama, but include people who signed up to vote for him in the primaries as a counter to Hillary Clinton, as well as Hillary voters who cannot stand Obama, but will not admit so publicly.
Republicans are charged up and motivated - far more so than in either 2004 or 2006. This fact in and of itself is extremely vital, as it was completely unanticipated by the "prestige" polls like Gallup - who still refuse to recognize the facts on the ground that conflict with their prized methodologies.
One more thing: VOTE. Call a friend. Call a neighbor. Tell them how important you believe this election is - because it truly is.
same in Long Beach, CA.
Not near as much visible support for Obama as there was for Kerry.
that's not true... internal polling gives the candidate as true a picture of the state of the race as possible... they want to and NEED to know how things REALLY look... that way they know where to spend money, where to rally, where to GOTV...
Last time PA was called for Kerry very quickly. Then Ohio, where Bush had a much larger lead was left in the “too close to call” category until about 2AM EST. The networks wouldn’t call Ohio because it meant a Kerry loss. They couldn’t bring themselves to admit it.
…and worked the phone banks for 5 hours
WOW, that’s inspirational. Maybe all isn’t lost on America’s youth. Thanks for that!
I wonder why?
I had not heard of McInturrf before, if he pulls this off he will be the new Karl Rove.
“I regret that I have but ONE vote to give for my country.....”
Evidently you haven’t had any contact with an ACORN representative. :)
“Something is going on here in Virginia that the MSM has completely and almost predictably has missed”.
...I went to both Palin rallies here in Richmond. As was the one in Fairfax, packed to the gills with excitement but even better...fear and anger. Both are very good motivators. The MSM is underestimating Va. Lots les BO stickers here than Gore or Kerry had. BTW, my sister lives in Oakton and her kids went to Oakton HS. Some of the stories she told me about the policies made me sick.
Wallingford is the postal name for most of Nether Providence Township. Both Swarthmore and Nether Providence are some of the few municipalities in Delaware County where Dems run things.
Nether and Swarthmore are filled with Obama signs.
If Mac is campaigning there he is campaigning on enemy turf far more than Obama did. It's a good sign.
Delaware County has not gone Republican for a president since 1988.
Obama's only visit to Delco was to nearly all-black Chester.
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