This is very interesting. First, it gives Obama an eight point turnout advantage, which is six points too high.
Second, it oversampled the Philly area and slightly oversampled the Pittsburgh area as well; with reweighing the numbers become 50.0-44.4 (with the six point oversample). Actually, the numbers are even closer than that because Survey USA did not survey anyone in NW PA, which is a light red area.
Third, here is where it gets really interesting. Even with that extra six point advantage, Obama is performing barely at Kerry levels in the Pittsburgh and Central parts of the state, five points UNDER Kerry in the SW portion of the state (students of Obama’s huge PA primary loss to Hillary will start nodding their heads at this point), and only slightly better than Kerry in the NE part of the state. He may be in bigger trouble in PA than I thought.
Finally, McCain has three events in PA today and tomorrow: one in Delaware County in SE PA (57-42 Kerry in 2004), one in Scranton in NE PA (won 56-43 by Kerry four years ago, and one in Moon Township (Pittsburgh area, win by Kerry 53-46). I would surmise that McCain is going for the kill and he seems much closer than Bush ever did to getting it.
If this poll is right, and once you take a few more things into consideration, PA is not just razor close, it’s now tilting ever so slightly to McCain.
Are you posting this in the wrong thread by chance?
Gird you loins, I have been calling PA a Red State for months.
By the Trident of Jupiter, Gird Your Loins! PA will be a Red State.