"I dreamt of fire and the Hindenburg blew up, therefore I predicted the Hindenburg disaster" and "I oversampled Dems like never before and then Obama won, therefore my polls are valid" are the same animal, and I'm not going to pretend that they aren't just because my guy loses.
it's not about being right for me, it's about folks here being truthful about the polls and about past polls when they reference them
I appreciate the accusation of lying. Of course, you have no evidence that I'm lying and there is no motive for me to lie (since I'm asking everyone to turn out like crazy) so your pointless accusation appears to mean you're a jackass of some sort.
i have seen polls cherry picked from 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2004 to prove a point and yet cherry picked poll ignores a dozen or so other polls from referenced time slot that defies the poster's assertion.
What I did was compare mainstream "reputable" major polls to the results of the last three election cycles. Cherry pick? Not me.
i have seen talk here that Dems are oversampled this year versus in the past but have seen no concise proof given how many pollsters don't grant archived internals...
The problem is that they don't match turnout in past elections. On this very thread there's a turnout analysis of VA voters in 200 and 2006 that shows the pollsters are assuming a massive growth in Virginia Dem turnout. Then there's the national polls which in some cases have a 40 or 41% Dem sample...We all know there hasn't been a 40% turnout Dem or GOP in the last three presidential cycles (or a seven point gap between Dem and GOP turnout in a Presidential cycle), so we hardly need to look at archived internals to know that's a load of crap.
Lastly, in poll after poll the oversample of Dems matches or exceeds the lead Obama has over McCain. One doesn't need to look at archived internals to know that doesn't bode well for The One. Does it mean they couldn't be right? No, but it sure doesn't seem like pollyannaism to be skeptical of something that's so silly on its face.
further, I don't think pollsters like to be wrong....at least the professional ones...George Gallup said in 1948 that his industry might never recover and some didn't
Well then, it's a good thing they haven't been wrong any time since 1948...except in 1994 (and all the other times they've been wrong). Do you think they liked being wrong then? Do you think they were wrong on purpose, or just had bad assumptions about the way people were going to vote? Again, do you really believe these people (ALL of them) didn't catch on to the fact that Americans were going to swap out Congress for the first time in 40 years, but they couldn't possibly be missing some stuff about Obama?
we shall see but I will stick to my premise that ignoring the polling aggregate and simply saying they are all wrong or in cahoots is indeed pollyanna
Yeah, sure, I'm asking everyone to turn out like mad but I'm a pollyanna. I say we could lose this thing and I'm a polllyanna. If you met a real pollyanna your brain would probably freeze up.
you can't deny that folks here cheer when polls are in their favor and dismiss them when they aren't
What's that got to do with anything? Either I'm right or I'm wrong, because I'm pointing to specific data, not saying "I don't like it, therefore it's wrong."
i recall just two years ago folks said those polls were lies too
Those internals made sense. These don't. Dems weren't oversampled then. They are now. The GOP was ready to throw guys out then. They aren't ready to have Emperor Obama now.
the tipping point for me came about a month ago watching Sean and Scott Rassmussen and I could tell from Sean's poor poker face that our edge had turned south. i saw the same worry on Rove’s face just last Thursday..
Good grief...you're criticizing people for having a biased view of the polls and you're bringing facial expressions from a TV show as evidence for your premise? Gee, do you have some empirical data from the Magic Eight Ball, too?
OK...let's talk numbers, and maybe you can answer the question this time: Do you really believe that McCain is losing men by 25% or more compared to Bob Dole and G.W. Bush?
in this case we have folks going ad hominum on anyone like myself who does not think all the polls are liars or in a conspiracy
i have made it quite clear I think some are wacky and this can be overcome by a large turnout
but yes, I do think a few of the consistent polls are arguably representative of the tenor of this race.
if the race were like in say 2000 where it was within the margin of error RCP average at the stage or in 2004 where Bush held a decent edge I'd be more optimistic
but that's not where we are...simple as that...
I do find it curious that many freepers hail positive polls and dismiss negative polls
live by the poll, die by the poll
it's impossible to say but best case we are down 3-4 points nationally
so, we know what that takes
you mentioned oversampled Dems ...and yes, that is true with most but not all polls....does anyone know or have proof how much more they oversampled this year than in 2000 or 2004....I have never been able to discern that and I have looked at a lot of polls.
look at this angle:
Mccain is living in red states right now except for PA and IA and Obama is living in red states aside from PA...a stop in IA i think too
Mccain has been up to his eyeballs in OH, NC, VA, FL and CO
all formerly red states, now they have their own pollsters too and if they are seeing a need to be in formerly safe GOP states and the public polls say about the same thing then what does that say to you....that is empirical evidence to me.
and yes, I do pay attention when Hannity and Rove look worried.
and I just donated another 500 to Republican national Trust for the last minute Wright ads
I'm up to around 3500 just to them from all my kids and in a year I lost money in business due to rain
as for your name calling....this is a tough crowd....I'm used to it
name calling on this forum is usually just exasperation, I've done it too
we shall see soon how accurate the mainstream polls are......forget the crazy polls like CBS and Time....but a futher tightening of 2-3 points would sure be nice
btw...you can hold me to this..
if RCP tracking averages are not within 4 points in final poll released AM Tuesday evening we lose.
i will enjoy having you and Chet rub my nose in it believe me
Obama is up 6.4 now
I would actually like to see Mac within 3....
course they could toss the outliers
Gallup expanded
WashPost and CBS....
lets see here:
toss those three and it’s 5.3...getting closer
the last tracking polls have to be tighter
if we win, it will sure be a sweet one....sweetest I can ever remember even though McCain has never been my favorite policy wise