[chiller]

Hang on WesA...you're going to feel foolish come Wednesday next. Consider
1)that Old Media has never been so vehemently in the tank to O.
2)O's Acorn gambit was to register more Dems to affect the weighting that pollsters use. We've repeatedly seen the internal polling numbers show that to be exactly the case, but we're also finding many of the registrants are frauds, and we're also not seeing the predicted youth vote materializing. Hence, the poll weighting is wrong. I suggest it is VERY wrong...more so than ever before..
Pollsters reputations are at stake and all the reputable ones are forced to finally report the race tightening, lest they look like fools next Wed.
Finally, 3)..the late breaking issues are exposing Obama as a clear socialist Marxist, America is basically a center right country, and don't like what they're seeing.

Given all of the above, I'm expecting a sizeable McCain victory. 52 or 53 vs 45/46. It's not quite the landslide I predicted after Palin was announced, but hey...what's a few points?

Down ballot is worrisome, but it looks like McConnel will still be able to lay roadblocks in the Senate. And perhaps there are some Rino's we could do without that'll be knocked off. Conservative R's and conservative leading D's did best in '06.

Buck up all.

[rodguy911]

Wow excellent assessment Chiller! I sincerely hope and trust you are right.

[Morgan in Denver]

I like your analysis too.

As an aside, a woman who works with my wife complained this past week that she wished she had waited to vote because she voted for Obama without realizing how bad he would be or knowing the positions he stood for. I suspect this person won’t be alone as buyers remorse sets in for normal voters.

[Seattle Conservative]

Here is a poll prediction from 2004, a year in which PUMAs and the Bradley effect weren’t potential considerations in the polls:

Final Pre-election Harris Polls 11-02-04: Too Close to Call but Kerry Makes Modest Gains
The Harris Poll ^ | 11-02-04 | harris interactive

Posted on Sunday, November 02, 2008 9:10:40 AM by grandpa jones

The final Harris Poll from Nov 2, 2004...
Another piece of evidence pointing to a likely Kerry victory is that online Harris Polls in these large, key states, which may well determine the Electoral College result, all show modest Kerry leads. However, all these leads are within the possible sampling error for these surveys. Assuming the forecast is correct, Kerry is likely to win all three large states, and almost certainly the White House along with it. The sample sizes were well over 1,000 likely voters in Florida (1,433), Pennsylvania (1,204), and Ohio (1,218).

(Excerpt) Read more at harrisinteractive.com ...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2122618/posts

[Alas Babylon!]

I agree with you mostly, but we lost some fine conservatives in 2006. Rick Santorum and JD Hayworth were two stalwarts I was sorry to see lose.