Posted on 11/01/2008 10:32:48 PM PDT by Chet 99
Reporter / Bristol Herald Courier Published: November 2, 2008
While Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama maintains a small lead over Republican candidate John McCain in Virginia, an unusually high percentage of undecided voters is likely to determine the outcome in Virginia, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll.
“Usually you expect the undecided vote to be down around 5 percent going into the final weekend,” said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. “But here we’ve got 9 percent, which is large for a presidential race and the fact that it’s overwhelmingly white voters is interesting.”
Commissioned by several news organizations including the Herald Courier, the poll shows that 47 percent of likely voters statewide currently support Obama and 44 percent support McCain. However, 9 percent of those polled remain undecided – which Coker said is not unprecedented.
“The closest level of undecided voters in any major Virginia election is 8 percent in the 1989, Doug Wilder-Marshall Coleman governor’s race, which notably involved the first African-American candidate to seriously contest for that office,” Coker wrote in his analysis of the poll results.
Coker’s firm interviewed 645 registered voters statewide Wednesday and Thursday. The margin of error for the poll is 4 percentage points.
The firm also released a report Saturday on candidate favorability ratings in eight battleground states, which include Virginia. Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania join Virginia in leaning toward Obama. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio are leaning toward McCain. In none of those states, however, does the leading candidate beat the poll’s 4-point margin of error. Pennsylvania joins Virginia with 9 percent undecided voters, which is the highest number of undecideds among those battleground states.
In a telephone interview Saturday, Coker said: “What’s gonna be interesting is if this undecided vote breaks conventionally and splits, or if it all goes one way to Obama or McCain.”
Of undecided voters in Virginia, the poll reveals 93 percent are white and 75 percent do not live in Northern Virginia.
In Virginia’s 1989 gubernatorial race, Coker said, 96 percent of the undecided voters were white, and on Election Day the undecided whites “broke almost all in favor of [the white candidate] Coleman.” “It will be interesting to see if 20 years is going to change things,” he said.
Also in his poll analysis, Coker mentions “the Bradley Effect,” which refers to the 1982 California governor’s race, and is “defined as the tendency of white voters to tell pollsters they were “undecided” rather than admit they were voting against the black candidate.”
The poll, which Coker began in September, shows Obama’s favorable ratings rising steadily from 44 percent to 47 percent, while McCain’s have fallen from 47 percent in early September to 44 percent in November.
ahunter@bristolnews.com | (276) 645-2531
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Interestingly, Mason Dixon missed Bush’s 2004 margin of victory by 3 points. In fact, all VA polls released in the final week of 2004, except 1, underestimated Bush’s margin by at least 3 points.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I bet and I’ve heard this from a bunch of friends and family that people are fed up with Bush. They really can’t stand him and it’s very difficult for them to imagine essentially ratifying his administration and putting McCain in. On the other hand, they don’t like Obama either. If Clinton was the nominee she’d win easily as they’d have little trouble voting for her. But it’s almost like they feel even though they don’t like Obama at least he’s not Bush. The question is if in the 3 days enough of them say well, McCain isn’t Bush either, the dems still have Congress, things can’t get much worse, and we can always go with Clinton in 4 years anyway. Some like Palin, some don’t, but she’s not really a factor among most of them, also some women do like her.
93% white undecided and 75% out of NOVA bodes well. I’m worried about the Mark Warner factor. It doesn’t help that the top 3 politicos in the state are Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, all Obama backers. That’s a tough hurdle to overcome. With him on the ballot it becomes easier to vote straight dem or for Obama than it would if John Warner were winning another big votory. Mark Warner is popular throughout the state.
What happened to VA? It used to be solid GOP. Has NOVA really shifted the demographics that much. Obama’s 100% of the black vote is also probably worth an extra pt or two.
VA is key as it’s an early state. If they call it for Obama right away, it will be a pretty gloomy night as that will pretty much depress turnout in CO, NV, MO, the FL panhandle and pts west. Same with NC. If, OTOH, McCain wins NC and VA then that will have the reverse impact and should motivate people out west to bring it on home
Racist rednecks are going to steal Virginia from tha brothas. Thank goodness.
Well, the Rev Wright ad will be running all over VA, if these voters are white guys who distrust Obamao, that will not be helpful to him...at all..
So if VA is looking better from a strategic standpoint, what comes next FL or NC or OH?
PA; VA + PA = a sure victory.
I would give McCain a negative rating, and yet, I’m voting for him. Actually, I’m voting for Sarah and he gets the benefit of that...
In 2004, North Carolina was declared “too close to call” after the polls closed. Bush won by 12 points.
True, but it is a heck of a risk for McCain to take.
What I do like is we will finally...FINALLY...know who is right, who is wrong, which pollster screwed the pooch and which one did not...
6 hours until the Sunday shows start, 3 day polls started on Thursday will be posted on Monday..this thing is winding down.
You may be cautiously optimistic, my freeper friend, but I’m too busy blowing great square bricks of pre-vote anxiety out of my postern orifice to calm down.
Wish I had your composure.
And stay there.
You/we will need it to claw out of the burial we will get on Tues.
On Wednesday, we start fighting back. We will make Hussein miserable his entire Presidency.
Hell, on that election night, they wouldn’t call SOUTH Carolina until a quarter after 9. Bush won by 17.
Good news. Rove always said he trusted Mason-Dixon and Survey USA more than anyone because it most accurately represented internal polls.
_______________________________________________
Rove also claimed to have the “REAL” numbers in ‘06 that reflected the true state of that years election.
This is what I love.
It proves that they* couldn't buy this election!
*The DNC/Chicago Machine...aka...commies.
I went to the McCain rally in Springfield, VA this morning. Did a highly scientific yard sign poll from the rally to home (maybe 10 minute drive). There were a few more McCain/Palin signs than the other guys. Given that this is Northern VA, that’s not bad at all. A few weeks ago there were far more Obama than McCain/Palin signs. VA’s Republican chickens seem to be coming home to roost.
rose, i’m sweating, but a million miles from despair.
And don’t worry, my anger will burn like a thousand suns if Big ears snatches this one.
I live in Prince William County, the “purplest” county in the state. On my street: 17 McCain signs, 2 Obama signs. McCain bumper stickers everywhere. No one I’ve talked with believes the polls here. And I and my extended family of 12 are Dems voting McCain/Palin, and we know of many others as well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.