Indies in MA like McCain a league more than they liked Bush. (And Indies make up 50% of Mass Voters) Many Formerly Moderate-Republican Towns in Central Mass, North Essex County, Plymouth County, and Barnstable County will lean to McCain after having voted against Bush both times. I’d say McCain wins about 39-42% of the vote, Obama wins about 57-60%.
Not only that, but amongst what few Republicans there are in the Commonwealth, McCain has always been fairly popular. Mac beat the pants off of Bush in 2000 in the primary, and still managed to only lose by 10 against the home-state candidate this year. MA was a big Clinton win as I recall as well.
What does it all add up to? Not much, but I can’t see how Obama carrying MA by a slimmer margin than is standard for Democrats correlates with being up 3.1 billion points in the national polls.