Posted on 10/29/2008 3:56:18 PM PDT by Retired Greyhound
These are folks who, four years ago, voted mostly Republican. They are undecided now because they are upset with Bush and upset with the economy. But they are not yet on board when it comes to voting for Obama, either because of his party I.D., or his race, but mostly because of the fact that he's a Democrat.
The question all of us in the analyst community are trying to figure out is, will these undecided Republican-leaning voters show up and vote McCain? Or will they stay home?
If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain — as I've argued before — will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote.
What does this mean for the map? It puts a lot of states into too close to call territory, including North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada.
The problem McCain has is that a movement of undecided voters toward him might not be enough to stop Obama in Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. And it is in those three states in particular that McCain has to make serious progress in order to turn his goal of reaching 260 electoral votes (not out of the question) into a goal of actually reaching 270.
Clearly, the McCain campaign is counting on something happening in Virginia or Pennsylvania, as a lot of new money and candidate time is being poured into both states.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
No, this is ALL about keeping ratings up. And ad revenue from the campaigns.
ROFL. McCain is pulling into the lead. Now that voters are faced with actually making a decision on an inexperienced first term senator with a radical left wing history instead of the hypothetical ‘hey, wouldn’t a black president be cool?’ question, McCain is gaining support in the battleground states.
From what I heard when catching the tail end of the FOX “all stars”, Krauthammer was referring to the PEW Poll which shows zero with a big lead, but Mara Liason looked very concerned.
Also, earlier, Brit Hume used two polls, Rasmussen (I think) showing a tightening, and a Gallup poll of Registered voters showing Obama’s lead growing (I haven’t even seen that one). What the heck is FOX up to??
There not much backtracking going on here.
He’s saying that McCain has very little chance and that the McCain pollster was just trying to build moral and save legislature seats by putting out that memo.
Yup. McCain is going to win this thing.
Then we will have to put up with him for 4 years. But at least we’ll have Sarah.
The analyst community? Is that some sort of code for the gay community?
Well, we’ll see about that on November 4th Chuck. Stand up Chuck!
To be honest these last couple of weeks I cannot watch Brit Hume or his Panel. They drive me nuts.
I used to Love Brit but this election cycle has really turned me against him.
Don’t watch this any more either.
What is funny is the shows I used to not be able to stand are the ones I watch now, OReilly and Greta.
LOL.
Won’t matter.
One methodology for stealing this election was piloted and proven in the 2004 gubernatorial election in the State of Washington. Pub wins close vote. Dim demands recount (the first recount may have been required by state law due to the margin of victory.) Pub wins recount. Dims keep recounts and finding new votes (all Dim votes, of course) until the Dem wins. When the Pub demands the sames recount that the Dim got, TRHEE TIMES, the press and governor-elect say, the people have had enough of this recount stuff, we need to move on with the business of the people. Count on it.
I am so glad I am not alone - and as much as I love Sean I have stopped watching any segment with Alan there. Stopped Brit and the all stars a while back - very disappointing.
This election is a very close one in my view and can go either way. McCain may well lose but it ain’t in the bag the way the Probama media pretends it is and they are doing their victory laps way too early.
You know there is something seriously wrong with that Pew poll when it gives 0 over double the lead the Daily Kos poll gives him!
I watched that segment too.
Brit was citing a registered gallup poll with a 9 point spread. Barnes was complaining about the Kalidi tape (as a distraction). And Kraut was worried about the PEw.
This on a day that shows all 5 dailies at 4 or below.
Sure glad FOX is bias.
STOP watching FOX!! Do yourselves a favor and tune out! I have and I have regained my sanity!!
But there is no McCain surge. It is simply a function of the fact that the polling organizations, needing to retain their credibility for future election cycles, are finally reflecting the true state of the race.
But the damage is done.
For months now, the polling organizations, in league with their mainstream media patrons, have been telling us that an Obama victory is inevitable. This mostly likely shifted the true state of the race a good 5-10 points in Obama's favor. This is because many apolitical Americans tend to go with the perceived winner and will now vote for Obama because he is the guy that everybody says is going to win.
It may still not be enough to prevent a McCain victory. But we'll see. Suffice to say that the mainstream media failed to produce a Gore win in 2000 and a Kerry win in 2004 though they came close both times. This time, they pulled out all the stops and made no pretense whatsoever that they are neutral.
The sad fact is that if the Republicans actually nominated a real conservative, this race would have been over in early September and Obama would be playing the noble loser role of Walter Mondale or Mike Dukakis.
McCain is simply an awful choice for our party. We couldn't possibly have done worse (except maybe Mike Huckabee). He is an awful and uninspiring campaigner. He has spent most of the past 20 years masquerading as a Republican and rubbing our faces in the dirt as he usually sided with Democrats and repudiated nearly every conservative value that we hold dear as a senator. His only redeeming factor is that he does support the military and his support of the surge helped turn the tide in the Iraq war (and make it a non-issue in this campaign).
That said, John McCain is about 100 times a better candidate than the marxist, communist, socialist, American-hating, race-baiting Barack Obama.
Thus I am forced to be in a position to not only support John McCain but enthusiastically support John McCain in Tuesday's election and hope for the sake of this nation that he is able to somehow pull this out.
I think he will but I think we are in for a real nail-biter like in 2000. Make sure you go to bed early on Monday night because it looks like none of us are going to be getting any sleep at all Tuesday night.
My prediction is that John McCain is called the winner sometime around 5AM on Wednesday morning.
It’s gotten to a “turn the TV off” stage for me and I’m sure for lots of people. This election (at least the last couple months) I’m all about coming here and finding out the good, the bad and the ugly. You know what? It’s quieter! No more talking heads for me.
Your 5AM McCain victory scenario will most definitely, definitely be followed by weeks, if not months of legal wrangling. David Boies, that a-hole Larry Tribe, and other wankers will come crawling back out of the woodwork to Zero’s side. Shoot we might even have to get James Baker back on our side, it’s about the only thing he’s good at.
Problem is, we had no real conservatives ready for prime time. Duncan Hunter, policy aside, thrilled no one with his soaring rhetoric. Fred was uninsipiring, Mitt a phony-con (and seems to attract some cultish followers with their recent behavior), and Rudy, well, he’s better off as a hatchet man.
Good news is, we seem to have a bench of up and comers. Bad news is, we can’t throw them out as cannon fodder like Sarah Palin.
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