This election is down to OH, VA, NV and CO. With OH and VA I have to believe tilted toward us (McCain)....and likely NV as well.... CO looks like trouble (and could put Obama over the top).
PA is the only blue State McCain has a shot at....at it is a very distant shot by all measures....Even Obama's latest internals show them not to be too concerned over PA (and they have history on their side....not to mention the last 50 polls out of PA ...of course these are slanted DEM....but the law of averages says not all 50 can be that wrong)...
If McCain holds OH, VA, NV and CO....We win. We are going to hold FL and NC without much trouble.
Don’t write off NM. From what I have vaguely posted here and what Desert Rhino and others in NM posted - we think McCain takes NM. NV is not a shoo-in for Obama either.
I think McCain can win PA. We may pickup 6 house seats in PA.
I am not sure about CO. I think the Catholic Church bishops in PA, CO and NM have been very direct on abortion in this election. Far more than any other election. This will count for a lot in the Italian American & other Catholics in PA and Hispanic Catholics in NM and CO. I think the Church is pretty alarmed about a guy named Hussein who lived in Indonesia (largest Islamic country in the world). The Church knows quite a bit about Islam.
The evangelicals in CO are also motivated as are the Mormons. The Mormons are huge in UT but they are also in the SW and California. You may also get some of the Bradley effect with Hispanic voters.