Decided this news deserved its own thread.
I’d feel better if McCain added a rally or two in the Hampton Roads area.
Here’s how one political analyst surveys the presidential race in Virginia. For Obama to carry the state, he needs to get 60% of the vote in the D.C. suburbs, and pick off one other “region” of Virginia (preferably Hampton Roads), or hold the GOP margin under 10,000 votes.
Obama has been to Hampton Roads multiple times; Senator McCain and Governor Palin didn’t make their first appearance until recently. The Dims also have huge TV ad buys in the region. Again, McCain didn’t get in the game until the last few weeks.
With its huge population of military personnel and veterans, McCain should win Hampton Roads handily. I say “should,” because the Dims have put together a huge GOTV effort aimed at his core constituencies. McCain will carry the 1st Congressional District, which runs from York County, through Williamsburg, and on towards the Richmond suburbs. However, I’m concerned about McCain’s margins on the southside, which includes Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Suffolk.
If you want a parallel, look at the 2006 Senate race between George Allen and Jim Webb. Admittedly, Allen ran a terrible race, exacerbated by the infamous “Macaca” incident. But Webb creamed him in the D.C. suburbs and and Allen carried Hampton Roads by less than 10,000 votes. He lost by 7,000 statewide.
At this point, I’d say Obama is ahead in northern VA, and I’m not sure if McCain can close the gap in places like Fairfax County. If he wants to carry Virginia, he needs to pay another visit to Hampton Roads, and avoid a repeat of Allen’s tactical mistake two years ago. He neglected the region, and as a result, didn’t get enough votes to offset Webb’s advantage in other areas.
Here ya go, Wes. A nice Virginia thread for you. :-)
Printing out my ticket this very minute ... bringing 5.
Already voted for McCain/Palin, Gilmore and Fimian. Love Fimian’s ad close: Gerry Connelly, too corrupt .. even for Congress. Just perfect.
By Saturday they may have to relocate the rally, maybe to W. Springfield or Lake Braddock H.S. The Interstate Van Co has hosted this pre-election event for years but if they get a presidential candidate rally turnout, it’s really rather small and parking is limited.
BFL - BTTT