Posted on 10/28/2008 4:31:32 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Last I looked at places like 538.com and ElectionProjection, they were calling Nevada either "leans McCain" or "tossup". But this story in the Las Vegas Review Journal makes that assumption pretty suspect.
On the first day of early voting, 62 percent of Clark County voters were Democrats, while 23 percent were Republicans and the rest nonpartisans or members of minor parties. Through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans.
Ok, now pay close attention, the early voting gives Democrats a 26 point edge in in votes cast.
Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.
Whoa! That is a heck of a lot of PUMAs. Let's take a look at the actual vote totals:
Through the end of voting Sunday, about 300,000 people had voted early statewide, a turnout of 24.9 percent of the state's 1.2 million active voters.
So if we do a little math, this means 150,000 people have voted Obama, and 148,000 for McCain. But 165,000 of the voters are Democrat, while 87,000 are Republicans. For these results to be valid, at least 13,000 Democrats have to have voted to McCain, and up to 61,000. Assuming that the Independents are splitting 50/50, this gives us about a 37,000 Democrat crossover votes, or 12% of the electorate, assuming 100% support for McCain among Republicans. Put more realistically, the Republicans in Nevada have a 12% advantage in crossover support.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Check his record. :^)
I live in Clark County , I voted early last weekend, and judging by the demographics I observed at the polls, I am not sure that Obama can carry Clark County. Without Clark County Nevada will be red Nov 4.
Doesn’t Clark County encompass Las Vegas? I would think that would be deep blue territory.
Do you know anything about Jon Porter’s re-election prospects?
I have and do. I speak with him about once a quarter on a townhall phone call. Has he done some things I am upset about - yes. He did work on a bill that helped my daughter and hundreds if not thousands of other Military personnel. He is a close as I can expect for a Rep on immigration.
I meant the OP’s report.
Porter is looking to lose right now. and clark is deep blue territory. Looks to be alot of unemployed union folks when Obama gets in. reap what they have sown.
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