I have. I did one of my long "calculations on a napkin" calculations of the early FLA vote earlier today. The Republicans are actually running very slightly ahead if you base it on who requested ballots and how each side voted in 2004 (e.g. Dems voted 85-15 Dem in 2004 and 2006), GOPers voted 93-6 in 04 and something like that in 06). Heck, I even threw in the absentee Independents and assumed they are voting 57-41 Kerry as in 2004, and STILL the GOP almost certainly leads the vote.
In short, you're right. So far the evidence is that neither side is benefiting from early voting, but this is a plus for McCain because Obama and his "formidable" GOTV machine is trying very hard to turn out Dem voters early. This is compared to four years ago, where polling had indicated that early voters were favoring Kerry by a substantial margin. Chet 99 knows more about that part of all this.
Whether it helps or hurts one side, I don’t have a big issue with this one way or another. What bothers me is election day tricks where the Dems find a friendly judge to keep polls open longer in say — East St Louis only, but not the rest of Missouri.
And if a Rat is prevented from voting early due to long lines is he/she going to just skip showing up on election day? The logic does not make sense.
I any event, I do not like early voting as a matter of principle. We should have an Election DAY. First Tuesday after First Monday, when the nation as a whole renders a verdict.