Another, less favorable way to look at your data:
County: 2008 poll, 2004 result
Bucks: Obama+6, Kerry+3
Allegheny: O+10, K+15
Erie: O+7, K+9
York: M+12, B+28
Montgomery: O+12, K+11
Which was exactly what I saw.
see post 91. You need to look at the absolute numbers - not jsut the percentages.
m+18 not m+12.
We have to look at what these counties are, too.
I would be worried if Obama was way up over McCain in Monty and Bucks. We can figure that Chester and Delaware are in the same basic range - a slight Obama gain or holding steady.
Our gain in Allegheny is likely met or exceeded in
beaver washington fayette.
We’re going to be getting substantial gains out of those counties.
I’d expect gains out of S/W-B but we have no data for that.
Also, gut feeling tells me that there’s gonna be strong turnout and stronger than usual margins in the less populous counties. I don’t think they’re going to be doing a specific poll for Fulton county (let’s say) which Bush won with 76%.