The key for McCain is that he has to do better in Allegheny and the Philly suburbs than Bush did. I think that he will do that.
The other thing is that there are MANY older, FDR Democrats in the PA rural areas who usually vote Dem, but are going to vote for McCain. For example, I grew up in Lancaster, and my grandfather lives up in Columbia county. Most of the old folks up there are registered Democrat, but vote Republican on the national stage. I know some of his friends who reliably vote for Dems, including Kerry last time, who are going to pull the lever for McCain.
Your story has been told/reaped over and over and over again all across the country. People will be SHOCKED on election day.
For those that usually vote Republican nationally, how do we gain if we get them again?
For those that were so stupid or so perverted that they voted for Kerry, why would Obama be a bridge too far?