[edzo4]

what value is a national poll when the election is not decided on a national vote?

obama could theoretically be up 10 points in a national poll and still lose the electoral vote

I believe obama will get more votes than mccain and lose

[mnehring]

I think that is the key, we may have a 2000 situation on our hands. Gore should have won that handily considering he was an incumbent and all the dirt they had on W.

[romanesq]

A national poll does have some merit. Some trendlines can be determined based on the overall spread on how certain states will go.

So for example a wide enough or small enough lead can portend where certain states may land up heading.

Of course that is speculative too. But all polling is.

[CSI007]

Actually at 10% that would be impossible. Outside of 3% nationally would likely translate to an electoral advantage anyway you slice it.